The target was set by the Indonesian Cocoa Association (Askindo). "I think output will fall by 30 percent this year because of the rains. It's been very difficult to find beans and we have to face the reality there's something wrong with the crops," said one trader in Ujung Pandang, the provincial capital of South Sulawesi. Another said: "For sure, this year's crops have declined because every day we are talking about difficulties in getting the beans. Output may fall 30 percent below the target."

Sulawesi traders said rains had damaged cocoa pods in the plantation areas in the provinces of South, Central and Southeast Sulawesi whichaccount for nearly 80 percent of Indonesia's output. Several shipments from Ujung Pandang, which is the main export port in Sulawesi, have been delayed because exporters could not find enough beans, traders said. Daily arrivals were as little as 50 tonnes in July compared with 1,000 tonnes at the same period last year, they said.

Askindo has said Indonesia's cocoa production was estimated to reach 325,000 tonnes this year against 310,000 tonnes in 1998 because of the expansion of plantation areas. It said Indonesia exported 278,145 tonnes of cocoa beans in 1998. But some traders in Ujung Pandang said farmers were busy building new houses and buying electronic goods, rather than taking care of the crops, when prices of beans skyrocketted during the economic crisis.

They said this was another factor behind the decline in this year's output, in addition to the bad weather. One trader in Singapore believed rains would likely trim this year's production but another said more beans would come at the end of Julyor August and that the mid-crop in November would be good due to plenty of moisture. "The main crop in the May/June/July period seems to be much smaller, which shows the weather has an impact on the crop. But I am not quite sure if the decline is 30 percent...I wouldn't comment on that," said one trader in Singapore.

An official at a grinding company in Kuala Lumpur said he believed there would a reduction in this year's output in Indonesia due to the rains which also affected the quality of the beans. "There seems to be a reduction in production, but I think it is too early to say how much. There are also less good quality beans in Sulawesi. Some are saying the crop will still be continuing in July, but it is tailing off," he said.

The official said sellers in Sulawesi, however, were adamant to sell their beans at higher prices despite the mould which affected the beans. "There is a tug-of-war there...that buyers are not buying cocoa while sellers are trying to sell the beans off," he said. Indonesia'strade and industry ministry said in a report last week Indonesia's cocoa plantation areas will cover 532,767 hectares in 1999. It put the output estimate at 335,249 tonnes this year. Traders said prices of fair, average cocoa beans were quoted at 6,100/6,200 rupiah/kg in Ujung Pandang.