Seed prices are firm owing to speculative demand and lack of fresh supply. However, the prevailing scenario could change dramatically after August 15, when Brazil's crop would hit the global markets. Stockists who are holding seeds in anticipation of price rise are likely to dump their hoarding once the existing shipments are over. Tanna said in anticipation of bumper crop and seeds stock of 25-30 lakh tonnes, prices of new crop is expected to open lower by Rs 100-150 per quintal.

Export showed moderategrowth, albeit lately, fall in the soya oil prices is a cause of concern for castor oil exporters. Some overseas consumers may switch over toward cheaper soya oil. Until June 99, country has exported 1,08,886 tonnes oil. During July to September, country is likely to export another 50,000 tonne, taking the figure to 1,58,886 tonnes. For the calender 1999, the oil export is expected around two lakh tonnes, he added. As far as supply is concerned, export and local demand will remain around 55,000 and 15,000 for August to October respectively. Season may end with oil surplus of 30,000 tonne, Tanna explained.