While the Indian Tea Association (ITA) has come out with the above figure, industry analysts are of the opinion that the forecast seems to have been built upon optimistic targets. With exports till the month of May being 57 million kg (as compared to 69 million kg during the corresponding period last year), it is sceptical whether the figure would cross the 175-million kg mark in 1999.

According to industry sources, it will be difficult for India to make up on tea exports particularly when one of the largest buyers like Russia has been conspicuously absent from the auctions since late last year. It may be noted that Russia alone accounted for 45 per cent of the teaexported in 1998.

It has not been possible to ascertain the Tea Board's projections on tea exports for the current year as yet. It was believed to have said earlier this year that exports would remain at last year's standards (205m kg) or even surpass it. Analysts contended that this was by no means achievable.

Although the industry has been hit hard by the slump in Russian buying it is hopeful that there might be some breakthrough if talks in Russia succeed and the latter makes some purchases for the rest of the year. Perhaps keeping this mind, the ITA has predicted that the Russian Federation is likely to pick up 66.5 million kg in 1999 compared with 82.5 million kg last year.

Other CIS countries have, however, been projected to register slight increases in their tea imports from India this year. Poland is predicted to pick up about 11 million kg of tea from India in 1999 compared to the 9.6-million kg last year which effectively means an increase of 13.6 per cent.

The tea industry is banking alot on the European Economic Community (EEC), which is projected to pick up 33.8 million kg in 1999 compared with 29.8 million kg last year, an increase of 13.3 per cent. The largest buyer UK is slated to pick up 22 million kg, a 12.5 per cent rise. The West Asia and north African countries are said to register an almost 10 per cent drop in the export quantity. This would be particularly true for countries like Egypt or Libya, said industry sources.

The recent formation of the Common Market for Eastern and South Africa (COMESA) has evoked an element of doubt in a system of regional grouping extending to other African nations as well. The seriousness of the issue comes in the wake of reduced tariffs in the region. Egypt, has recently allowed access for Kenyan teas at a concessional tariff of three per cent as against 30 per cent duty in the case of teas sourced from India and Sri Lanka.

Analysts are sceptical of possible regional groupings extending to other African nations like Sudan and Libya too.

Itwas contended by the ITA that Indian exporters should make concerted efforts to ship more teas to the middle-east countries. Industry observers feel that the next few months would happen to be crucial to determine the trend of exports to various countries. According to the ITA, the Indian tea industry should focus on enhancement of quality and place more emphasis on value-addition to sustain and increase its export earnings in the current year.