On Friday, BSE Sensex closed at 4672.12 points. The index gained a net of 33 points over the close of the previous week. The week remained rather uneventful compared to previous weeks. But there were definitely pockets of some really superb price rallies. The stocks in the pharmaceutical sectors and the software sector picked up steam. These two sectors were lagging as compared to the overall market. But during the week, stocks in these two sectors gathered momentum. In the software sector, the stocks that registered smart gains were Digital Equipments and Satyam Computers.In pharma, the stocks that gained heavily were Ranbaxy, Glaxo, German remedies among others. The moral of this discussion is that under any given market circumstances, it is possible to identify stocks which are expected to rally and those stocks that are expected to decline. The trick lies in identifying the stocks in a rallying mode. If one is caught on the wrong side of the move, the penalty will be high.
The movement of the marketduring the week was sideways with the index moving in a range of 4545 to 4770 points. This sort of lateral movement suggests distribution by strong hands. On the weekly charts, one notices appearance of a `Doji', a sign of indecision in the market. Now, the appearance of a doji has some interesting revelations. The market did open higher than the previous week's close, but it did not open higher than the previous week's high. Thus, in strict candlestick terms, the appearance of this `Doji' does not form a part of the bearish candlestick pattern called the `Evening Doji Star'. Also, this Doji is also not contained within the prior week's `real body'. Thus, this Doji also does not form a part of the bearish candlestick pattern called as the `Harami Cross'.
There is no solid confirmation of a correction in the market. This pattern suggests that there might be a pause in the uptrend for a while and the best thing to do is wait for a breakout from either side. The daily charts show a bearish pattern. One seesappearance of a bearish `Dark Cloud cover' that resulted in trading from the two trading days of Thursday and Friday. But as the trend for the market was sideways for the week, index could continue to remain in a range 4557 to 4757 points.
Under the circumstances, the best possible thing is to wait for the break out from the range and then go in direction of the trend. The strategy for the week should be to buy around 4557 points with a view to selling of around 4757 points and if there is a break above 4757 points, one may consider additional buying for further gains to around 4810 points. If the index breaks above the level of 4810 points one may see a rally to higher levels. Alternatively, if the index breaks below the level of 4457 points, we could see a decline to around 4400 points.
The indicators are again showing signs of strength. The overbought levels in the value of the indicator does not seem cause a correction in the market. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has just started to dip from itsover bought levels. The MACD (Moving Averages Convergence Divergence) is in a buy mode. The action of the index is sideways and the best way to judge the direction of the market is to await breakout from the appropriate levels as mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Wockhardt
The price of the stock has broken above the resistance level of Rs 282. The breakout has come after a period of long consolidation. The volumes have been fairly significant on breakouts probably suggesting that the breakout may result in higher prices. The price of the stock can rally to around Rs 352. One may consider buying these stocks at current levels. One may buy with a stop loss below Rs 270.
Finolex Cables
The price of the stock has moved above the resistance level of Rs 417 before temporarily moving down. The levels above Rs 417 are new highs and suggests that the stock price may be heading higher. One may consider buying the stock at current levels with a stop loss below Rs 390. The price of the stock canrally to around Rs 530 in the medium term one may buy with a stop loss below Rs 390.
United Phosphorus
The price of this stock has seen an excellent appreciation. A move of this magnitude suggests that price can seek higher levels. The price of the stock has seen a very fast appreciation. One may consider buying the stock on declines. The price of the stock has seen a very fast move and therefore one may consider buying this stock on declines to around Rs 158 and then consider buying. The price may rally to around Rs 250 in the medium term. One may buy on declines with a stop loss below Rs 140.
Century Textiles
The price of this stock can decline to around Rs 68.5 as it has broken below the support level of Rs 75. The MACD is in a sell mode. One may sell short with a stop loss above Rs 75.
MTNL
The price of the stock can rally to higher level on breakout from the level of Rs 235 Traders may buy on breakout for a target of Rs 250.Keep a stop loss below Rs 225.
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