The new combination of Socialists against whom the RJD and its allies are likely to be pitted, will pose a formidable challenge for him at the hustings, political observers said. Bihar with its 54 Lok Sabha seats, of which 30 went to Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and its allies last time, is likely to play a decisive role in the in the formation of a federal government once the election is over. In the last general election, the RJD had a limited seat adjustment understanding with the Congress and the two parties together secured 23 seats.

The BJP combine got most of the seats from south and central Bihar and ended runner-up in north Bihar. As caste will continue to be the main factor in the Biharelections, the new JD combine, which has leaders like former railway minister Ram Vilas Paswan, outgoing Railway minister Nitish Kumar and JD leader Sharad Yadav, is likely to cut into the RJD's strong vote-base among the socially backward sections.

Though the RJD has its base in northern Bihar, from where it won a majority of seats last time, the combination of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Socialists is likely to further consolidate its base in the region with the support of both the upper caste and lower caste Hindus and the socially backward classes, observers say.

In the last general election, the RJD chief was pitted against Sharad Yadav of JD in Madhepura, but managed to win by nearly 50,000 votes. If Sharad Yadav is put up as the NDA candidate from Madhepura, observers feel Laloo Prasad Yadav will have to give a second thought about contesting this seat.

Many observers point out that the RJD won 17 seats in the 1998 elections due to a spilt in anti-Laloo PrasadYadav forces as it was a three-cornered contest amongst the RJD, the BJP-led combine and the JD. The merger of the Socialists has made the NDA all the more formidable in the state. Prominent among the candidats of the new JD combine will be defence minister George Fernades, Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan and Sharad Yadav, while the finance minister Yashwant Sinha will contest on the BJP ticket.

Though an RJD alliance with the Congress and the two Communist Parties is likely, observers felt it would not pose a threat to the NDA.

The Congress, which could win five seats in the last general election mainly on the support of the RJD, has yet to regain its traditional vote-base that by and large comes from the upper castes and the Dalits, or lower caste Hindus.

The Congress party's prospect of improving its image in the state got a severe beating when it decided to oppose imposition of President's rule in the state, thus paving the way for the re-installation of chief minister Rabri Devi's governmentand in the process incurring the wrath of the upper Hindu castes which were opposed to Laloo Prasad Yadav. State Congress leaders privately admit that the party lost a rare opportunity to regain its traditional vote-base by choosing to oppose the proclamation imposing Presidential rule in the state. The most interesting aspect of this election is that while the Socialists led by the JD and their erstwhile friends are likely to speak against Laloo Yadav, the left parties which opposed him tooth and nail in a multi-million rupee corruption scandal will side with him at the hustings. On the other hand, the JD leaders, who used to flay the BJP or its alleged "communalism," will be seen on the same side as their erstwhile opponents.