A strong bullish undercurrent marked trading on Wednesday. The number of advances at the BSE went up from 541 to 941, while declines shrunk from 1046 to 665. The advance volume made a four fold jump from Rs.436 crore to Rs.1759 crore. The volume in decline shrunk to one-fourth from Rs.2026 crore to Rs.503 crore. Thus there is a complete reversal of sentiment across a broad front. This recovery is reflectedd only partly in the Sensex. However, it is important to give due weightage to this index as its movement basically does influence the market trend. Going by the Sensex picture, it is not to time to celebrate yet. The market needs to consolidate a bit more before it can take a firmer move northwards. The market opened with the Sensex at 4567, distinctly weaker than the previous close of 4618.
The intra day high at 4690 is yet to catch up with the high of Tuesday. On Tuesday the market had hit a peak of 4722, from which the decline started induced by Infosys. The day's low at 4546 was again lower thanthe previous low of 4586. The saving grace came in the index closing at 4660, a gain of 42 point over the previous close of 4618. On Thursday the index would come up against a resistance at 4691. If this resistance is cleared the index will surge ahead northwards with vigour. Despite the recovery today, the technical indicators for the Sensex have not signalled a buy. They are waiting for some more consolidation, which could come through on Thursday.
The 4567 level on which the market opened today was quite close to the support level of 4574, I had mentioned yesterday in this column. By taking this support the Sensex could have gained a measure of firmness. On the global front there is a turmoil.
The sovereign rating of China is reported to have been brought down. There are serious worries in the Hongkong market. The Dow Jones itself is worried about a strengthening of the Japanese yen, which could put brakes on the US stock markets. It is quite possible that under these circumstances the FIIs mightseek to find more comfort in Indian markets. But, as chemical engineers would say, there is nothing like sucking and seeing. Keep a keen watch on FII action.
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