In this context they point out that such export ceiling for 1998 was fixed at 150 million kg, but actual shipments under that ceiling could not go much beyond 100 million kg, shipments to non-quota countries should rise by 100 per cent and they should go up by 200 per cent over the actual despatches in 1998 if the revised ceiling of 300 million kg is to be reached.

No doubt there has been some improvement, of late, in despatches to certain East Asian countries, but a 200 per cent jump over the previous year's actual performance is considered out of question.

Sources argue that the decision to augment the ceiling to 300 million kg from 200million kg might have been taken by the authorities on some different considerations.

It is a known fact that the industry has been demanding that cotton yarn exports should be placed on OGL. In order to meet its demand half-way, the authorities might have decided to enlarge the ceiling to 300 million kg, so that the former may have no cause for complaint that a low ceiling was coming in the way of larger exports of cotton yarn.

The extent to which the ceiling will be actually utilised will however depend on the extent of improvement in overseas demand.

If one looks at actual exports to non-quota countries in first five months of 1999 they have amounted to just 58.46 million kg, despite some improvement in despatches to S Korea and certain other destinations.

This does not give much hope for the achievement of even the old ceiling of 200 million kg, let alone the enlarged ceiling of 300 million kg.

In 1998 actual exports of cotton yarn under all schemes were lower in volume by 7.96 per cent at473.54 million kg, compared with 514.47 million kg in the earlier year. Likewise, in value-terms they were lower by 14.72 per cent at US$1423.19 million against US$1668.75 million in 1997.

In the first five months of 1999, overall shipments show an improvement of 14.08 per cent in volume to 212.42 million kg against 186.20 million kg and in value terms by 8.48 per cent to US$597.87 million, against US$ 592.19 million in the same period of the earlier year.

Korea has substantially stepped up its imports from India in the first five months of 1999 to 31.83 million kg from 27.41 million kg in the same period of the earlier year. Likewise, Russia has also increased its offtake of cotton yarn during the period to 12.28 million kg from 8.87 million kg.Also, there has been some improvement in despatches to Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and some other destinations, but Japan and Singapore have slightly reduced their offtake. On the whole, exporters are worried about poor average price realisations from cotton yarnexports.

Reports from overseas markets indicate that while business conditions show some improvement in S Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia in particular, European markets still remain cheerless.

The domestic market for cotton yarn remains weak as there is large- scale closure of powerlooms in Bhiwandi and other centres. It is, however, hoped that the demand for powerloom fabrics may improve by the end of the current month as the festival season draws nearer. The accompanying table shows the current average prices for various counts of yarn.