On the other hand, given that the country is seeing the first signs of an economic upturn after three years makes one want to be sure that he does not lose out on the opportunity of the current bull run.

So back to the question: How far can the Sensex go?

In trying to find an answer to this question, I decided to draw lessons from the past. The Sensex rose from 400 points in March 1988 to 792 points by June 1989 -- doubling in a year's time. Later, the index rose from 800 points in March 1990 to 4,285 points by March 1992 -- a five-fold rise in a span of two years.

For over five years between November 1993 and May 1999, the Sensex has been moving in a band. The bottom ofthis band was at 2,800 and top at 4,600, roughly. During this period, it oscillated nine times.

Currently, it has broken out of this band and is headed into unchartered territory. The reason behind the current boom comes from a slew of economic indicators: Growing demand, low inflation, ability to raise product prices, expected higher GDP growth, high liquidity and inflows from foreign institutional investors.

Are these reasons as good in potency and sentiment as those that drove the Sensex from the 800 level in May 1990 to 4,285 by March 1992? At that point of time, the economic liberalisation process was launched, and huge investments into the economy made a beginning. No doubt, Harshad Mehta took advantage of the background to hijack the Sensex.

Currently, the scenario is different, but there are some similarities. Demat, more corporate transparency, software supremacy, drug discoveries, and turn-up in commodity prices. Will this combination give the same momentum? An interesting question.

HarshadMehta may not be a factor now, but the FIIs and high net worth individuals could, in fact, be playing the same game, consciously or otherwise. Who is not interested in making a pile as fast as possible? Therefore, do not rule out the possibility of the current bull frenzy lasting for several weeks if not months.

I have picked some charts from the Sensex's history to show you how long a bull run can last or how high it can climb in one campaign. The pictures tell their own story. The important lesson I see is this: The current bull run can run long, as long as 18 months. Small periodic corrections will take place, but the main trend will continue. Once again, the market can throw to wind all yardsticks for valuation. They will invent new ones, like scrip price-corporate sale ratio, brand value, call it what you will. Markets have always had a way for rationalising their action. And they have no qualms about post-mortems, when things turn sour. It is all in the game.

But I will have served your interests ifI have brought lessons from history to show you what could happen now.