Raw jute traders feel that despite a shortfall of production to the tune of around 20 per cent there will not be any crisis largely because of the huge carryover of the last year. Moreover, they are expecting a upsurge in the fibre prices from September.

Members of the Jute Balers' Association, the official organisation of the raw jute traders, said that the current crop will not be more than 70 lakh bales. On an average, one bale is equivalent to 180 kg.

``This year, as per our initial estimates, the crop will be around 70 lakh bales. Then there is a carryover of 20 lakh bales, which includes 13 lakh bales stocked with the farmers and the middlemen. ``The jute mills are carrying a stock of aroundeight lakh bales. So, altogether, around 98 lakh bales is available with the industry,'' a leader member of the association said.

He felt that there will not be a crisis because the consumption of raw jute in the industry is almost in the same region.

``Last year, according to the official figures available from the Indian Jute Mills' Association, total industrial production was to the tune of 87 lakh bales and add to it another seven lakh bales which was consumed in the unorganised domestic industry. ``The total is 94 lakh bales and the fibre availability will be 98 lakh bales. So there will not be any shortage of raw jute,'' the member explained.

At present, the price of TD-4, the average quality of the raw jute which is consumed most by the industry, is hovering between Rs 10,000 and Rs 11,000 a tonne.

``This price will continue for the next couple of months because there is hardly any demand from the industry. Already 15 mills are closed and apart from the government's jute goods orders, there ishardly any private order. ``However, after three months, there will certainly be an upward pressure to the raw jute prices,'' the raw jute trader felt.

Last year, there was a substantial amount of raw jute import from Bangladesh. However, it is expected to be different this year.

``Like us they also had a bumper crop last year and so they could export to the tune of eight lakh bales to India. ``This year, the expected production is likely to be in range of 34 to 36 lakh bales against 40 lakh bales of last year. Hence, there will not be enough crop to export this year,'' another raw jute trader said.

However, during the last few weeks prices of the golden fibre has witnessed a downtrend. Official price quotations from the Jute Balers' Association state the prices of TD-4 went as high as 11,350 a tonne in the first week of June but there after it has been a steady decline. As on July 1, the price of TD-4 was Rs 10,100 a tonne.

Market observers said that the fall in this price is mostly due to the goodrains during the last few weeks which has to some extent washed away the apprehension of a poor crop.

However, the observer said that it is too early to make any prediction because heavy rains from now on will not help the cause in any way. Instead the existing jute plants will be affected.