According to industry sources, it will be difficult for India to make up on tea exports particularly when one of the largestbuyers like Russia has been conspicuously absent from the auctions since late last year. It may be noted that Russia alone accounted for 45 per cent of the tea exported in 1998. Promises to lift 100 mkg of tea from India by the Russians as per an agreement between the two signed last year, may not meet targets. Analysts are sceptical whether this figure will cross the 70 mkg mark till year-end.

Said an exporter, ``One needs to be optimistic--lets see whether the Indian team can have impact on the Russian market this time. We need to get the procedural difficulties set right so that the process of export transactions with Russia can be smoothened. Moreover, a drop in Russia's import tariff on packet teas will help raise export prospects for tea.''

Import of tea in bulk into Russia attracts a duty rate of five per cent compared to 20 per cent on packets. The buying picks up from August onwards when the need to import tea becomes essential for the Russians. Although figures are not available at thisjuncture, it is doubtful whether they have bought teas to the tune of 30-40 mkg up to now. Last year India had exported 59 mkg to Russia till August whereas the whole year figure stood at 82.5 mkg. The figure was higher at 89 mkg in 1997. Apart from Russia, markets like the UK, Poland, and Germany are expected to come under close scrutiny this year. UAE is a prospective market for Indian tea. In 1998, the gains in export were witnessed in countries like Libya (6.4mkg) and Iraq (10mkg).

Another development in the world market which may have its adverse effects on the state of Indian tea exports is the recent formation of the Common Market for Eastern and South Africa (Comesa). Fear of a system of regional grouping extending to other African nations may have its repercussions on Indian tea exports.

The seriousness of the issue comes in the wake of reduced tariffs in the region-Egypt, it appears as a gesture to the COMESA, has allowed access for Kenyan teas at a concessional tariff of 3 per cent as against30 per cent duty in the case of teas sourced from India and Sri Lanka. According to industry analysts, tea exports to Egypt averaging around 6-7 million kg runs the risk of being completely shut out. Industry analysts are also sceptical of possible regional groupings extending to other African nations like Sudan and Libya.