Though the BSE sensex is 160 points away from the April 1997 peak of 4,523 points, 55 stocks have already surpassed their respective 1997 levels. The 1,100 points rally in the past two months has seen as many as 75 crips outperforming the BSE sensex. Among the outperformers in the past two months, Ballarpur, Ashok Leyland, Indo Gulf Corporation, Larsen & Toubro, Ceat, Garware Wall, Sterlite, Asian Paints, Videocon International BPL and Gujarat Gas have zoomed to record an appreciation as high as 316 per cent. The rise in the past two months has taken most of these outperformers past their respective 1997 peaks.
Cement stocks have soared, automobile stocks have alreday raced away and metal stocks like steel and aluminium have moved in tandem with international prices. Information technology stocks have been growing with the surge in earnings and other cyclicals have firmed up on the back of an expected turnaround in the economy.
So what's in store for investors? Investors can avoid some of these scripswhich have shown a stupendous rise in the past two months. Not that they do not have potential to rise further, but its better to let them settle down at slightly lower levels.
Scrips like Arvind Mills, on the back of lower raw material costs is an excellent bet. Althgough the scrip has shot up from Rs 27 to Rs 40, it still holds preomise. Scrips like ABB, Siemens, IPCL, Voltas, Castrol and Bajaj Auto could be in the limelight in the next few sessions.
After a stupendous growth in earnings from Infosys, the other software stocks are ripe for a short but steep rally ahead of their quarterly results. Scrips like Pentafour Software and Satyam Computers are ripe for picking.
The no-delivery in many pivotals also has led to a number of stocks flaring to their new highs. Scrips like Larsen & Toubro have been the star performers in the past few sessions on the back of heavy institutional buying. Operators are beleived to be short in the counter with the scrips drawing close to the end of its no-deliveryperiod, institutions would be asking for deliveries and the operators are running for cover. Same has been the case with State Bank of India, where the operators are short.
ACC
Signs of revival in demand for cement which have given a push to cement prices were enough to force the market to re-rate the ACC stock. This process took the stock to a three-year high. Since the stock is in a new trading area, and the resistance levels are far from the current price, the uptrend is likely to continue.
Ashok Leyland
Once written off as a dead stock few months ago, is now racing away. After breaking-out from the Rs 51 level, the stock is presently availble at its two-year high, thanks to an unexpected jump in demand for the HCVs during the first quarter of the current year. However, much would depend on the sustainability of recovery in demand for its products, and fortunately signs of that are visible. While the stock enjoys excellent support at Rs 61, one can wait to see a support level beforetaking a plunge.
ABB
Once the company reported lower-than-expected results during the early part of 1999, the stock broke all its support levels. The recovery, however, was as sharp which was nothing but the correction of its previous fall as the orders backlog is still huge. The de-merger of the power generation division also made its contribution in the latest rally. Technically speaking, the stock has a resitance at Rs 491.
Bilt
Bilt is also a re-rate story. And the main reason was a revival in demand for paper. The re-structuring factor also helped the market to take the stock seriously. As the demand for paper has shown signs of improvement, and industry observers are positive about the future, the stock should also get good response from the market. The stock is being traded at its two-year high. The stock has very good support at Rs 56 which can be used as stop loss for the medium term investors. On the upper side, the stock has a resistance at Rs 84.
Ceat
The rally onthe Ceat counter was one of the sharpest as far as the specified group is concerned. Reports that under the restructuring scheme, the company would be repaying its expensive debts triggered the rally, and improvement in truck demand provided additional fuel. The stock is also available at its two-year high. However, since the rally has been verticle, a reaction cannot be ruled out.
Century Textiles
A recovery in cement and paper sectors -- the two main sectors where the company operates -- was enough to bring back investors to this counter. Like any other stocks in the recent time, it was also the part of re-structuring story. Given the outlook for cement and paper sectors, Century Textiles stock has a long way to go. The stock is at its 52-week high. It can reach new highs in the coming months.
Hindalco
News reports that the company would not go ahead with its Rs 8000 crore grassroot project in Orissa and an uptrend in in the international aluminium prices forced the market to re-ratethe stock. Aluminium prices are expected to remain firm and rumours of a bonus issue is floating in the market; enough fuel to keep the stock going. However, according to the technical pattern, the stock would face a resistance at Rs 885 which is not very far from the current levels.
Gujarat Ambuja Cements
Although Gujarat Ambuja is at its 52-week high, the rally on this counter was not as impressive as ACC. As the company is the most effiecient in the sector, higher cement prices would mean a bonanza for its profit figures. Technically speaking, the stock has broken a five-year trendline, which is nothing but a warning for a major bull run. Be ready.
Sterlite
Problems at its copper smelter had forced market to hammer the stock last year. But with the plant coming back to normal, and the international copper prices touching a 12-month high, the situation has changed dramatically. The stock is at 52-high, and further appreciation from the current level is likely.
Grasim
Grasimwas the star performer in the Aditya Birla group. The credit for a rerating of the stock should go to a sharp recovery in cement demand. The shift of cement division from its sister-concern, Indian Rayon, also helped. The outlook for the company is positive. However, the stock could face resistance at Rs 381.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.