"The better crop outlook in other producing countries will put us under stress during the current year," Indian Pepper and Spice Trader's Association (IPSTA) president Sanjay Mariwala said. Aggressive selling is expected from Indonesia and Vietnam.

Price of the high-quality black Indian pepper could ease to about $2 per pound in the coming months, compared with $2.12 at present and between $1.70 and $2.30 in 1998, if supplies from Indonesia and Brazil lived up to estimates, traders said.

Higher Indian output will also add to the pressure, though early and intermittent monsoon rains in the pepper growing regions in the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka are likely to prevent output from reaching 1,00,000 tonnes as forecast by the state-run Spices Board,traders said.

Domestic production as expected by traders is to reach 75,000-80,000 tonnes in 1999-2000 from about 60,000 tonnes during 1998-99.

Deputy general manager in the international business division of Tata Tea Ramkumar Menon said the uncertain buying pattern of the United States -- the world's largest buyer of pepper -- was another factor to influence Indian exports.

Traders said the United States had imported less than 15,000 tonnes of its annual requirement of 38,000-40,000 tonnes of pepper between January and June, puzzling growing nations.

India's pepper exports totalled 35,100 tonnes during 1998-99 against 35,719 tonnes the previous year.

A leading trader T Vidyasagar said low pepper inventories in importing countries would help India reach the Spice Board's 1999-2000 export target of 36,000 tonnes. "The US alone needs another 23,000 tonnes of pepper by December. Vietnam has just about 3,000 tonnes left, while Malaysia has sold out," he said. "Only Indonesia, Brazil and India are leftto cater to the global demand," he said.

Indonesia harvests its pepper in July and Brazil's crop is harvested between September and October. India harvests pepper through the year though a large volume of the crop comes out in January. Indonesia is forecast to produce 15,000-18,000 tonnes of pepper during 1999, Vidyasagar said.