The export figure will undergo a further revision when the final data becomes available in the next three or four months, senior commerce ministry officials say. Only thereafter, the extent of growth in 1998-99 over 1997-98 can be worked out, officials explain.

Going by the data for 1998-99, based on estimates furnished by the commerce ministry on April 1, exports grew 3.7 per cent over the preceding year. In value terms, exports rose from $32.44 billion to $33.64 billion.

Officials further point out that there is a time lag of 12 months before the arriving at the growth rate recorded every year. For instance, the final data for 1997-98 came in just three months ago, the officials said, adding that this is because the electronicdata interchange (EDI) has not been in position at all the ports.

Going by the final data, the export growth rate for 1997-98 worked out to about 4.5 per cent, much higher than the 2.64 per cent growth estimated by the ministry. In dollar terms, exports during the year worked out to $35.01 billion compared to the revised figure of $32.44 billion and the commerce ministry quick estimate of $33.98 billion.

This means that the revised figure is lower than the quick estimate, officials concede, and add the former includes more data received from ports. On the other hand, the quick estimate is only an estimate and takes into account some anticipated export shipments.

Officials also point out that the DGCIS makes a quick estimate of exports based on the data received from customs which often is incomplete. The figures released by the commerce ministry are only provisional as all ports do not send data in time and therefore statistical estimates are done in some cases. The revised figures for the earlier yearare compared with the revised figures for the current year till the month for which the figures are available and for other months provisional figures are taken.