On Tuesday, the sensex not only touched a 22-month high but also managed to cross a minor resistance of 4,322. This is a very positive move which augurs well for the market health. Technically, the Sensex should not face any major hurdles till the level of 4,600 points. Around this level the market is expected to face a major resistance.

However, if one were to take a look at the individual index-based counters the picture is somewhat more than bullish. The heaviest of the lot, Hindustan Lever, is at an all-time high and is showing no signs of weakness whatsoever. ITC, the number two in terms of index weight, is not as strong as HLL. Although the counter is near its all-time high, one can expect a good move only above Rs 1,150. And the chances ofthat happening are quite good.

Reliance Industries is near its medium-term resistance level but the undercurrent on the counter does suggest that it would cross this hurdle, which is at Rs 192. Above this level, one can expect a very sharp move.

The medium-term outlook for State Bank of India is also bullish. MTNL, and Bhel also appear to be on a sound wicket, showing little signs of weakness that sellers can exploit. The road for Tisco and Larsen & Toubro is also clear for an upward journey. In fact, L&T is near a five-year high and has enough steam left to cross this level in the medium-term. Telco is also preparing itself to cross the medium-term hurdle of Rs 232. Above this level, the speed of the rise is expected to accelerate. Hindalco has already crossed its medium-term resistance and is heading for Rs 885 level. Ranbaxy and Castrol also appear strong.

The only counter which has some say in the sensex, and is showing a weak and downward trend is Bajaj Auto. The outlook for the stock, from thetechnical point of view is negative. Overall, the outlook for the top 12-index based pivotals is positive. With these scrips accounting for more than 75 per cent of the index, a further surge in Sensex appears bright.

While the trading community has to watch the Sensex movement closely, for the investors, even if the Sensex moves sideways, there are stocks especially the non-index based ones where a higher appreciation is quite likely. For them, the Sensex movements has of less concern, at least in the short run.

Even on a fundamental plank the market looks set for a rally, with most of the pivotals being widely expected to turn in a very good performance in the first quarter. The major names on this list are companies such as Tisco, Bhel, ACC and Reliance. Besides, a number of FMCG and pharma companies such and Hindustan Lever and smaller ones such as E Merck are expected to do very well in the just concluded quarter.Deepak Singh Tanwar