The Sensex recorded a break-away gap by opening at 4261, jumping the previous close of 4195 by 66 points. The index slid down just 10 points to post an intra-day low of 4251, which was again higher than the previous low of 4167 by 84 points. The market closed with the index at the day's high at 4306.Traders may be well be presuming that the index has surpassed the previous high of 4286, and therefore it could not race up to 4500. In technical reality, 4286 is not the reference point. The index has to cross the resistance of 4325, before you can feel exuberant.
But at the same time, one cannot ignore the gap at Monday's opening. Probably, the momentum will carry it forward further.
So should you climb the dizzy bull wagon? Yes and no. Yes, because of the fundamental factors that is driving the Indian stock market currently. No, or rather yes with a fair amount of deliberation, for a technical reason. Technically, the index can race up to 4474. But once there, further climb up could be slow andlaboured.
What is the moral of the technical story? It is that while you can exploit the bull frenzy right now, you should also know that another the faster you approach 4480, the chances of you getting caught with costly buys are more. Therefore, take care to book profit as the market rises. And again, give room for high intra-day volatility and do not be in a hurry to log in at high intra day prices.
But I hasten to add here that in a typical bull flare-up, punters do dare to get in unmindful of such considerations. That is because they do not want to miss the bus.
Well you can join them, if you choose, but certainly be forewarned that as you reach higher regions of the Sensex that I have talked about, you really run the risk of being perched high as the market recedes on profit-booking.
Do I look like a bull in a china shop? Perhaps. But this is only an attempt to caution you to proceed with care, and avoid potential pain. Tecnincally, all the indicators have signalled a buy.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.