The Heritage Foundation published a paper on China's growing nuclear and missile strength, based on the Cox report and other sources.

According to the reports, presently China may have 18 to 26 DF-5 intercontinental range ballistic missiles (ICBMs). These missiles, with a range of 8,000 miles, are unwieldy due to their use of liquid fuel, which takes a long time to fill.

To remedy this deficiency, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is developing two new ICBMs and one submarine-launched balistic missile (SLBM). Its most advanced missile programme is the solid-fueled, 5000-mile range DF-31 ICBM, which would be capable of hitting the western United States.

The DF-31 is expected to be nearly identical to China's next SLBM, the JL-2, which recent reports indicate China intends to test this year.

If the test is successful,it will enhance the likelihood that the DF-31 will be deployed by 2002. Deployment of the J-2 itself will take longer because China must complete building a new class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine that will be quieter and faster and reach greater depths than China's current submarines.

In 2005 beyond, says Heritage, it is likely that China will field the 8,000-mile range DF041 solid-fueled ICB. This missile could target almost the entire United States from bases inside China.

Two Heritage Defence experts, Richard Fisher and Baker Spring, say that to counter China's new missiles, the US Should perform an intercept test of an upgraded version of the navy theatre-wide (NTW) missile defence system in a way that responds to the threat from China.

The NTW system envisions 650 interceptor missiles to be deployed on 22 existing US navy aegis cruisers around the world. They also want the US to revive the space-based interceptor (SBI) programme. The Clinton administration cancelled the SBIprogramme in 1993.

"The emerging missile threat from China," say Fisher and Spring, "reveals this cancellation was a mistake. Congress should revive the SBI programme."

The United States, they say, "urgently needs to develop and deploy these two systems to address the emerging threat, or it runs the risk of being blackmailed by China with missiles designed with stolen US technology." Fisher is director of the Asian Studies Centre of Heritage and Spring a senior defence policy analyst.