But, and this is disappointing, industry's contribution to GDP has been lowered: estimated growth of manufacturing has been brought down to 5.2 per cent from the initial 5.7 per cent;and that of mining and quarrying put at a negative two per cent against the initial 0.1 per cent. The recession in industry was more severe than surmised. This was also true of finance, insurance, real estate and business services; the revised estimate of growth of this sector is down to 6.2 per cent from the initial 7.7 percent. Urban India, where the economy's organised sector is centered, bore the brunt of recession while income growth bounced back in rural India.

Central Statistical Organisation's first quarterly estimates of GDP, suggest the start-up of an incipient recovery in last year's third and fourth quarters. Trade, hotels, transport and communications, after the 3.3-per cent negative growth in 1997-98's fourth quarter, logged a 10-per cent growth in both the third and fourth quarters of 1998-99; and finance, insurance, real estate and business services halted their retreat in Q2 to notch a small advance in Q3, which was sustained in Q4 of last year.

Manufacturing fared worse in every quarter of 1998-99, but showed a pick-up in Q4; this was equally true of the construction sector. Available evidence during 1999-2000 so far suggests that growth in both manufacturing and construction (especially the latter, judging by the rise in cement prices) has been sustained. GDP growth in the first quarter of 1999-2000should exceed the 3.9 per cent rise of the first quarter of 1998-99. CSO's estimate for the first quarter will be eagerly awaited.

GDP growth this year will have to be fuelled by non-agricultural sector. True, the coming kharif holds promise of a bumper, even in oilseeds and pulses. However, it will be overly optimistic to expect a repeat of last year's high agricultural growth. Still, the point will not be missed that agricultural growth is slated to be positive. Aggregate demand should show a sustained expansion: the current improvement in demand for automobiles, commercial vehicles, steel and cement will radiate to a host of industrial goods. This is the season of green shoots, despite Kargil.