Highly placed sources at Jute Development Board, the nodal agency under the union ministry of agriculture, said the preliminary figures indicate that the area of jute cultivation this year had come down by 10 to 15 per cent and even if the crop is not affected by any other factors, the decline in area would certainly have its impact.

They said the decline in area of jute cultivation was mainly on account of the fact that all the farmers, who were taking up jute cultivation, could not do so as there was no rainfall during the sowing period in about 70 per cent jute growing areas.

In Bengal, sources said, about 15 to 20 per cent of the farmers shifted to paddy as sub-moisture soil is necessary for jute in the sowing period.

If the current information is any indication, sources said the output is likelyto be in the region of 80 to 84 lakh bales in 1999-2000 compared to 93 lakh bales in 1998-99.

Sources, however, said this was only their preliminary estimates and a final figure would be arrived at only after receiving detailed information from the state government agencies shortly.

Earlier, hot and humid conditions followed by occasional rains between April- end and mid-May had brought a whiff of relief as it brightened the chances of a timely crop which was delayed by two to four weeks in about 70 per cent jute-growing areas.

Industry sources said there was a fear at the beginning of the season that jute output would come down significantly, but with improvement in weather condition later, they felt that if there was any fall at all, it would be minimal.

We are keeping our fingers crossed, industry sources said adding they would rather wait for a clear picture to emerge till the state government agencies revealed their observations.

They, however, hoped that there would not be any majorconstraints on price level which was already ruling high. A few others were of the opinion that shortfall would cause price escalation which would go against the industry which was already reeling under low productivity.