In a Reuters poll of more than 70 experts across Europe, they forecast the first wave of central and eastern European nations could join the EU in 2005 and monetary union in 2007.

Countries joining the EU are supposed to sign up to EMU eventually provided they meet certain economic targets. But Wim Duisenberg, the European Central Bank's president, has warned EU hopefuls against rushing headlong into a project where even the highly developed Western economies are having problems.

"EU membership doesn't mean immediate membership of european monetary union. It means they have to have monetary policy leading to monetary Union," said Jan Stankovsky at the WIFO economic research institute in Vienna.

The Maastricht Treaty on monetary union lays down criteria for potential member countries including inflation, budget deficits andpublic debt. Former communist nations such as Poland and Hungary will probably have the most trouble getting close on the inflation rate, which is only around one percent a year in the present 11-nation euro zone.

They have already cut inflation significantly and Stankovsky was optimistic they could make the grade relatively soon. "In two to five years inflation in most or all of the eastern European countries could be brought down," he said.

The whole issue of when the six countries selected for "fast-track" negotiations to join the EU -- five ex-communist countries plus Cyprus -- is shrouded in uncertainty.

The hopes of most governments to join the Union in 2003 --Hungary is aiming for 2002 -- are seen as unrealistic.

According to the poll respondents, based in 25 countries from Iceland and Portugal to the Baltic states and Cyprus, 2005 is more likely, according to the median of their forecasts. A number of respondents said even this date could slip several years and this would have knock-on effectsfor joining the euro.

Central and eastern Europe has made steady progress on inflation. Poland and Hungary both had annual inflation rates of over 20 per cent until late 1996 but they are now around six and nine percent respectively.

Krzyzstof Rybinski of ING Barings in Warsaw said the finalle in the battle against inflation can be the toughest. "It's easy to bring inflation down to 4-5 pct but very difficult to bring it down under two per cent as it is in Euroland," he said.

The Czech Republic has already cut inflation to about 2.5 per cent but the cost has been high. The rigid monetary policy used to achieve this has pushed the economy into recession. Gross domestic product shrank 4.1 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter last year.

Polish officials are the most enthusiastic about joining EMU quickly. Central bank governor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz has forecast Poland will be in EMU between 2005 and 2008.

Supporters say joining EMU will allow eastern Europe to import the euro's monetarycredibility. It would reduce currency risk, allow interest rates to fall and boost investment.

But EMU membership would subject central and eastern European countries to heavy competition from abroad without the possibility of currency devaluation to ease the shock.

Last month Duisenberg advised Poles to keep their options open. "Any premature decision on the adoption of the euro could have severe repercussions on a country's competitiveness and trigger painful economic adjustments," he said.