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Sanjay Suri
London, June 21: Exultation by New Delhi over the "favourable" G-8 communique notwithstanding, the world's most powerful countries may have cleared the ground to play a larger role to intervene in the conflict between India and Pakistan, diplomatic sources said after their meeting in Cologne, Germany.
The broad agreement reached is "a lot more significant than their actual response to Kashmir," a senior diplomatic source told IANS. "The G-8 is now armed with an agreement to play an actual role," the official explained.
The condemnation of armed intrusion by the G-8 clearly points to Pakistan, but the broader agreement that does not refer specifically to Kashmir has "more far-reaching consequences even in Kashmir," the senior official said.
The G-8 agreed to enhance its capacity to "recognise and address the potential for conflict at an early stage," according to the agreement reached by its leaders. The G-8 leaders agreed in their communique that risks and the causes of the conflict would be "moreeffectively monitored" and "information shared to forestall them."
Officials say this agreement not only provides for sharing of intelligence information but early intervention in a conflict situation.
The agreement by the G-8 leaders also contains clear threats of pressure to be used in such situations. The communique says security, economic, environmental and development policies of the G-8 countries would be framed so that they are "conducive to prevention of violent conflict." This could amount to "a broad sanction for sanctions," the official said.
More specifically the G-8 leaders agreed to "monitor systematically military expenditures" in these areas. They agreed also to strengthen regional organisations to "expand their jurisdictional and operational ability" to help to control and resolve conflicts.
These agreements have serious implications for Kashmir, the official said. With Russia now included among the powerful G-8 nations (the US, Canada, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Russia),the agreements mean that their intelligence agencies, including satellite intelligence agencies, could now monitor the conflict in Kashmir jointly, the official said. "It means that on the basis of this shared information, they would take early action to prevent a conflict from developing or expanding," the official said. "So far we have had an appeal from (US) President (Bill) Clinton for withdrawal of the intruding forces," the official said. "This agreement clears the way for a more active role."
India and Pakistan can also expect to see more active intervention by the world's most powerful countries on the nuclear and missile front. The G-8 agreed to "build an international partnership" to strengthen non-proliferation. It was particularly concerned about spread of fissile material and agreed "to protect and manage weapons-grade fissile material." The G-8 also said, "We are deeply concerned about recent missile flight tests and development in missile proliferation, such as actions by North Korea."Officials said it was significant that India and Pakistan were not named in this context, though the agreement clearly condemned missile tests by those two countries. The timing of the agreement is critical in the context of the conflict in Kargil, the official said. "Now things can move from an appeal by the US to joint action by the G-8," he said.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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