With the availability of oil seeds seen going up, the industry would have an assured supply of raw material. Moreover, there has also been a decline in the international prices of oilseeds. Both these factors together can play an important role in pushing down prices of oilseeds and oil.

According to industry sources, even if prices of oil did not decrease, there would certainly be no upward revision taking place in the coming months.

As vegetable oils are the main ingredients in vanaspati, the check in prices of oil would keep the cost of production of vanaspati manufacturers in control.

However, according to Indian Vanaspati Producers' Association (IVPA), a decline in oil prices does not alwaysbenefit the industry as at times it results in decline in demand of vanaspati. IVPA executive director IR Mehra explained that there was a considerable gap between the time vanaspati was produced and the time it reaches wholesalers and retailers. "When prices of oil and vanaspati start declining, wholesalers and retailers are reluctant to buy fresh stock for fear that the prices may change further."

But as the present month is the season for marriages, business is likely to take an upturn. With a plentiful oil supply in the market and the prices under control, vanaspati producers are hopeful of good business.

The IVPA feels that the government should identify an agency for making more accurate and scientifically based forecast of oilseed production both for kharif and rabi crops. The variation in target figures for 1997-98 and the final figures for the same year announced in January 1999 by the agriculture ministry showed a divergence of 13.7 per cent.

The association believes that a more accuratepreliminary forecast would help the government and also the industry to plot the demand and supply graph more accurately for monitoring the flow and prices of oilseeds and oils through planned imports.