But Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), has estimated foodgrains requirement in the year 2020 at 375 million tonne for ensuring marginal nutritional security alongwith marginal food security.

The National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) in its recent study entitled `Agricultural Scientists Perception on Indian Agriculture: Scene, Scenario and Vision' has categorically stated that the task of ensuring marginal food security in 2020 is an achievable one keeping in view the vast untapped potential of natural resources like land and water in the country and emerging researches in the frontier science of biotechnology.

Thedirector-general of ICAR, RS Paroda, stated that at present a very large proportion of area under foodgrain crops falls in low productivity category which has productivity lower than the national average. The productivity in these areas can be enhanced to increase foodgrain output.

The share of low productivity areas varies from 57 per cent in coarse cereals to 92 per cent in oilseeds. Their yield levels are 40 per cent less than those in high productivity areas. About 60 per cent of such low productivity areas are in Bihar, Orissa, Assam, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh for rice and 68 per cent in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan for wheat. The most disturbing fact is that such large areas fall under low productivity class in respect of wheat, 78 per cent of which is irrigated. In rice, 32 per cent of irrigated area is of low productivity.

Foodgrains demand has been estimated by taking into account the additional needs generated by one or more than one of the factors like populationgrowth, urbanisation, changing food habits or dietary patterns, seed and feed needs, buffer stocking, export and import and wastage.

NAAS has also taken into account all the estimates of population projections in the year 2020 by several experts. These estimates range between 1,300 million to 1,622 million.

Prof Sinha has estimated it at 1,300 million, while the Standing Committee on Population at 1,330 million, the expert committee of ICMR at 1,335 million, Prof Kumar at 1,420 million and the PDPR at 1,622 million.

Prof Kumar while dividing the population into rural and urban livings and sub-classifying them further into four expenditure groups like very poor, moderately poor, non-poor lower and non-poor higher has estimated that the total foodgrain requirement in 2020 would be 262 million tonne apart from which 4.40 million tonne would be for seed requirement, 16.88 for feed grain requirement, 6.55 million tonne for industrial use and 7.90 million tonne would be accounted for wastage. The totalrequirement of rice for direct human consumption would 117 million tonne, that of wheat would be 93 million tonne, coarse grain would be 28 million tonne and pulses would be 24 million tonne.

Prof Kumar also assessed the productivity levels that will be necessary to reach the targeted output of 294 million tonne of foodgrains. According to him, the productivity of rice will be 2.9 tonne per hectare, that of wheat to 3.92 per hectare, coarse cereals to 1,333 kg per hectare, pulses to 1,282 kg per hectare, fruits to 24,063 kg per hectare and vegetables to 28,352 kg per hectare.

Comparatively Prof Sinha, basing his estimates on 2500 K calories/person/day and assuming only 1400 K calories will come from foodgrains, estimated that 152 million tonne of foodgrains will be required for direct consumption for a population of 1,150 million and 172 million tonne for a population of 1,300 million in 2020. However, around 1,100 K calories are to be derived from milk, vegetables, fruits, sugar, vegetable oils, root andtubers.

Prof Parikh and Dev forecasted cereal grain demands for India by building their calculations on two extreme scenarios like moderately rapid population growth and relatively slow growth of national income (MP-LG) at 3.75 per cent and relatively high population growth and high national income growth (HP-HG) at 6.75 per cent. Total human consumption of cereals for MP-LG category would be 65 million tonne of wheat, 97 million tonne of rice and 27 million tonne of coarse cereals. For the HP-HG category it would be 100 million tonnes of wheat, 109 million tonnes of rice and 26 million tonnes of coarse cereals. If the projected demand of 24 million tonne of pulses is added up, the total foodgrain requirement by 2020 would be 259 million tonne.According to Prof Katyal, the country will be needing around 266 million tonnes of foodgrains in the year 2020.

The expert committee of ICMR also worked out the food requirements based upon the nutritional energy needs derived from food. The projected demand forfoodgrains in 2020 would be 375 million tonnes. According to its estimate everyone requires to consume a minimum consumption of 60 gram of protein per day.

Apart from this, males engaged in sedentary work would require net energy of 2,425 K cal/day. Males engaged in moderate work would require energy of 2,875 K cal/day and males engaged in heavy work would require energy of 3,800 K cal/day. Females engaged in sedentary work would require 1,875 K cal/day, those engaged in moderate work would require 2,225 K cal/day and those engaged in heavy work would require 2,925 K cal/day.

According to ICMR, the rural population would require a consumption of 287.3 kg/person/year of cereals and millets and 20.1 kg/person/year of pulses. The urban population would require a consumption of 209.7 kg/person/year of cereals and millets and 20.1 kg/person/year of pulses.