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Thursday, June 17, 1999

IPE Brent crude, gas oil futures trade sideways 

REUTERS  
London, June 16: IPE Brent crude and gas oil futures were seen trading sideways to higher on Wednesday, but analysts said both contracts looked as if they still lacked sufficient drive for a push through key points of resistance.

Key resistance on August Brent stands at $17.

``$17 is looking pretty crucial for Brent. Breaking it could be a bit difficult, there is not enough oomph behind this move,'' Independent Consultant Elli Gifford said.

Gifford pegged initial support around $16.75 and then at $16.50 and said... ``If held, and there is a good possibility it will hold, we may get a more serious attack on $17.''

Short- term momentum indicators for Brent and gas oil have turned bullishly convergent to further price gains, but this is countered by overbought RSI and Stochastic indicators on Brent and to an even greater degree on gas oil.

However, short- term moving averages support remains firm, and short and long- term averages for both contracts are convergent to their current uptrends.

Likewise,analysts said the divergent nature of the upper and lower bands of a Bollinger band study laid over both the charts contracts suggest the present advance is likely to be sustained.

The next upside target on the August Brent chart beyond $17 is seen around $17.40, this represents the one per cent Fibonacci projection based off the $2.70 extent of a previous rally from $14.04 to $16.75 from early April to early May.

Analysts said a break of this level would set up a move to around $19 the 1.618 per cent Fibonacci projection level.

Gifford said her ultimate long-term target for the present rally be would to around $22 but for the short term she would be happy with a move to $18.50-$19.

On the spot month continuation chart, Fibonacci based projections suggest the rally from the recent retracement low at $14.53 has the potential to extend up to around $21.75, a level last seen in October 1997.

Most analysts saw the initial .618 projection, $19, as the most realistic for price action over the thirdquarter of the year, though in the longer term some felt the $21 plus level could be touched over fourth quarter 1999, first quarter 2000.

Analyst said gas oil was looking very over-bought and because of this may need some correction before a break of the rally peak at $140 on the July contract is seen.

However, they said there was some fairly good gap-up support starting around $131 to contain a correction, and while this gap remains open, the uptrend was likely to hold.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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