The market gives the impression of breathing hard at the higher levels. As scrips try to inch up higher, profit-taking emerges repeatedly. This is especially true, where scrips have made a smart thrust in the last two sessions, like in IPCL or Tata Chemicals.Even other scrips which have climbed steadily are are suffering from fatigue. Reliance is an example. It did give up much though, depsite being under pressure. At IPCL volatility above the Rs 105 level has been noticed time and again. At the SBI counter, a small thrust to the Rs 263.85 had triggered the volume in SBI to double from Rs 102 crore to Rs 212 crore.
While traders may find the scenario somewhat intimidating, a flash back into the recent past would give the right perspective. The market has been choppy and volatile from May 20, when it started falling from a peak of 4197. Right now, the 12 day exponential moving average is at 3919, with the Sensex closing at 4042. This would mean that the bull trend is still on.
This might surprisetraders, who are harassed by the high volatility in the last two days, especially at a time when they are hoping that the market is gaining strength.
The right view to take is this. Just discount the quick depression to 3700 level, the 12 day moving average at 3919 then does reflect the true market level. On Wednesday, the Sensex opened on a positive note at 4098, some 31 points over the previous close of 4067. It could also manage to post an intra day high of 4122, distinctly higher than the previous high of 4076.
The day's low at 4040 over the previous low of 4040 again underscored the same pattern. It was only the closing at 4042 (previous 4067) that has raised anxiety. Now that the market is reacting, you have no choice but to look at how far it can move down. Technically it can take support at 3920, should buying not emerge. The history of the index at the current level is just three day's old. Based on this, and for intra-day action, it is likely that buying could emerge, when the index touches4024.
More importantly, apart of the sluggish index, volume investment has taken place in several counters like Bajaj Auto, Corporation Bank, Crisil, Crompton, Grasim, Exide, Excel, Godrej Soap, Arvind Mills and many others. ITC and HLL are lagging behind. When these and the petro and Hindalco counters catch up the index will strengthen again. But it is time to look beyond the Sensex.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.