Patil was referring to India's centuries-old dependence on the monsoon rains for sustenance. More than 30 years after Patil said these words, the country's dependence on the monsoon to avoid drought situations has been reduced considerably, thanks to increased irrigation facilities and modernisation of agriculture and farm practices.

But a truant monsoon can still damage the food economy of the country and indirectly harm the industry as well. And therefore, as they have been doing for centuries, the Indian farmer still holds his breath (like Patil!) when it is time for the rains to come and then customarily thank the gods if the monsoon is good. A couple of weeks ago, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) put out its advance forecast of rainfallduring June-September 1999 which says that quantitatively the rainfall this year may be 108 per cent of the long term national average of 88 cm, with an estimated plus or minus four per cent error.

According to the 1998-99 pre-budget survey, weather-related setbacks occurred in May-June 1998 when more parts of northern India experienced searing heat with temperatures rising to 48 degree celsius. Fruit and vegetable crops suffered as a result. Second, severe floods during the monsoon affected farm output in the eastern parts of the country and in late October heavy rains around the Diwali festival season caused damage to standing crops such as cotton, matured paddy and vegetables such as potato and onion.

The much-feared El Nino effect -- the warming of the oceans near the Latin American coast around December -- however appears to have had little impact on monsoon behaviour. The 11-year spell of good monsoon behaviour has helped the country's food and farm economy. But it must be pointed out that sinceindependence the government has been trying hard to mitigate the fatal impact of a failed monsoon. Since Independence the total irrigated area has grown from 25 million hectares to a potential 91 million hectares for rainfed areas. In such regions mainly in the south where the rivers are rainfed and canal irrigation has been slow to develop, a national watershed development project for rainfed areas is in operation.

Improved seeds have been developed for cereals, oilseeds and horticulture with short-duration varieties to overcome the effects of delayed monsoons. Efforts are continuing to supply inputs such as credit, fertiliser and water to farmers on time and an experimental crop insurance scheme has been introduced for small and marginal farmers. This is not to say that everything is hunky-dory in the garden and India will not be threatened ever again by the vagaries of the monsoon.

Last year saw the bizarre spectacle of impoverished farmers committing suicide in states like Andhra Pradesh and Punjabbecause of the failure of their crops and their inability to repay the debts they had incurred.

There has been no credible survey done till now to measure the impact of the monsoon on industry. It is well-known that when the rains cause calamities like drought or floods, it reduces the purchasing power of the farmer. When food prices go up due to decreased production, it affects the purchasing power of the urban consumer as well. There has not been any coordinated attempt to conserve the water from monsoon rains most of which is allowed to run off, carrying the top soil with it.

India will face critical drinking water shortage in the next century and rather belatedly the government has woken up to the needs of watershed management. The vagaries of the monsoon apart, analysts talk of future climate changes as a result of uncontrolled atmospheric pollution creating adverse phenomena such as rise in sea levels. In the Indian sub-continent, a disruption in the monsoon pattern has also been predicted. Butnothing in the pattern of the monsoon in the last decade suggests that there is going to be an immediate disruption.