The seriousness of the issue comes in the wake of reduced tariffs in the region. Egypt, as a gesture to the Comesa, has allowed access to Kenyan teas at a concessional tariff of 3 per cent as against 30 per cent duty in the case of teas sourced from India and Sri Lanka. According to industry analysts, tea exports to Egypt averaging around 6-7 million kg run the risk of being completely shut out. Egypt which is primarily a dust market has been witnessing a marked decline in imports from India over the last few years.

Many contend the fact that since theCOMESA arrangements are not violative of the GATT/WTO, India's case needs to be projected. Moreover, with both Egypt and India being a part of the G-15 group, it is vital that the matter of tariff is taken up within the forum.

Industry analysts are also sceptical of possible regional groupings extending to other African nations as well. In that case apart from Egypt, markets like Sudan and Libya would also be in question. The effect would be adverse as in 1998, Indian tea exports to Libya have increased to 6.4mkg in 1998 as against 1.3 mkg in 1997. With regional blocks in force, it would be pertinent enough for the recently formed Tea Association of South Asia to address issues vital to the region, felt an industry analyst. Pakistan has a prospective market of 140 mkg and currently sources 60 per cent of its requirement from Kenya alone. The industry has also urged the government of India to concurrently intensify its efforts at the bilateral level to persuade the government of Pakistan and extend tariffconcessions to India under the preferential trading arrangement drawn up under SAPTA.

The current year may be a tough year for Indian exports which has been witnessing a downtrend in the Russian buying of late. The latest export estimates available reveal that there has been a six-million kg shortfall up to March this year at 40.87 mkg. Although there was half a year left for the Indian tea industry to make up for earlier export targets, much depended on the spate of Russian buying. It is felt that the rest of the year will happen to be crucial in determining the trend of exports to various countries.