It may not be a surprise according to them, if the country is, therefore, left nursing at the end of the 1998-99 seasons, the crushing burden of unprecedented stock of about 48-50 lakh bales, against the industry's lean-season requirements of around 20 lakh bales.

It may be interesting to examine where the CAB's assumptions have gone wrong. The CAB had assumed that the crop this season would be 161.50 lakh bales. Some subsequent developments go to show that the crop may actually be bigger. For instance, the East India Cotton Association has recently revised upward this to 162.50 lakh bales, while some individual analysts place the crop at 165 lakh bales.

Sources close to the Madhya Gujarat Sahakari :Cotton Marketing Union also have estimated the current crop at 165 lakh bales of170 kg each.

Incidentally cotton production in Gujarat is expected to cross 47 lakh bales mark this season.

While the CAB had estimated that imports this season might be around 6.50 lakh bales, nearly eight lakh bales have already been, according to sources, contracted for imports. Perhaps some more import deals may be struck before the season is out.

So far as exports are concerned the CAB felt that they might be around two lakh bales but the present indications are that shipments might not reach even one lakh bales.

Perhaps the biggest errors have been made by the CAB in estimating the domestic offtake of cotton. It said in February 1999 that the mill offtake of cotton this season might be 141 lakh bales, against 143.24 lakh bales in the earlier season. If, however, one looks at the figures of yarn production recently given out by the union ministry of textiles, they show a persistently declining trend in view of the subdued conditions in the domestic as well as overseas markets for yarn.

Anumber of spinning mills have closed down in recent months. Similarly, small spinners are in distress. In Andhra Pradesh all cooperative spinning units except just two have rolled down their shutters. On the basis of the anticipated production of cotton yarn in 1998-99, it is estimated by analysts now that the mill consumption of cotton this season might not exceed 137 lakh bales. It may perhaps be lower, sources argue. Likewise the offtake of cotton by small spinners may be lower by about one lakh bales around 5.50 lakh bales against 6.54 lakh bales in the earlier season.

So far as non-mill consumption of cotton is concerned, the CAB has arbitrarily assumed that it might be 9.00 lakh bales against 9.10 lakh bales earlier. When even the offtake of fabrics, the second necessity of life, remains subdued and when almost the entire economy seems to have slowed down, the CAB's assumption that the non-mill consumption of cotton this season might remain around the last year's level with only a marginal difference,seems on the face of it unwarranted.

No convincing physical exercise has ever been undertaken to ascertain actual consumption of cotton by such mostly unregistered units. It is possible that the actual offtake of cotton by this sector may be much lower than 9.00 lakh bales as estimated by the CAB. Even ignoring this, one may find that the CAB's estimates that were given out in February 1999 may require several adjustments as shown in the accompanying table.

It is obvious that if one adds this difference to the CAB's estimate of 40 lakh bales for the closing stock, the actual pile up in the country might well reach 50 lakh bales at the turn of the season.