Having decided to field first, he gave the new ball to the inexperienced Debashish Mohanty, instead of Venkatesh Prasad. Mohanty turned out to be easy pickings for Australian openers Mark Waugh and Adam Gilchrist. They put on 97 for the first wicket before Saurav Ganguly picked Gilchrist's wicket. India had already lost the initiative in this crucialtie.

The third, and perhaps the most telling decision, was to send Sachin Tendulkar as opener. Tendulkar looked very settled at number four in all the matches he had played in the preliminary round. In fact, his presence in the middle order was very re-assuring for Ganguly and Rahul Dravid at the top of the order. Now, by sending Tendulkar first up, Azharuddin raised the probability of this batsman succumbing to the seamy conditions that exist in the early part of an innings. Tendulkar fell to a beauty from Glenn McGrath in the very first over. India failed to recover from this psychological loss.However, one must recognise the efforts of Ajay Jadeja and Robin Singh in narrowing the margin of defeat. India could still make it to the semi-finals with a superior differential run-rate, provided they win by comprehensive margins against Pakistan on Tuesday and New Zealand on Saturday. It is equally important for India that Zimbabwe lose all its matches and New Zealand win only its match against Zimbabwe. Ifthat happens, there will be a three-way tie between India, New Zealand and Zimbabwe, and perhaps India could squeeze into the semi-final stage on the basis of a superior run-rate.India can only bank on this mathematical equation, and a bit of common sense at this stage. The famed `Simpsonian' methods have hardly altered India's fortunes.

Since India's fate hangs ever so dearly on the outcome of most other matches in the Super Six league, Indian cricketing fans would be watching these matches with avid interest. Today's match between Zimbabwe and New Zealand thus attains significant proportions from India's viewpoint.

Zimbabwe with four points is already on a high. They won both their matches in the preliminary stage against sides that were far too complacent. However, today, they are pitted against a side that has the potential of lifting this World Cup. So, to win this match, they have to put up a stronger performance on both the batting and bowling fronts. So far, no Zimbabwean player with the exceptionof Neil Johnson has put up a memorable performance. Skipper Alistair Campbell is due for a good knock, so is the case with Murray Goodwin. The Flower brother, Andy and Grant, have been consistent but not outstanding. Against the four-pace attack of New Zealand, it is extremely vital for Zimbabwe to get a good start. They have a capable middle and lower order, but good contributions at the top alone will place them in a winning position against New Zealand.

The New Zealand looks a well-oiled machine. The team has a good pair of opening batsman in Nathan Astle and Mathew Horne. In the middle order, Craig McMillan and skipper Stephen Fleming lend good solidity. Further, all-rounders Chris Cairns, Chris Harris, Dion Nash, Daniel Vettori and wicket-keeper Adam Parore have the capability of winning matches on their own. New Zealand is easily the best fielding side in the tournament, and this capability will surely assist them in their progress to the semi-finals. As for India, it's vital that New Zealand winstoday.

On Tuesday, India take on Pakistan. For India, the importance of this match can hardly be overstated. Pakistan is virtually on a roll this World Cup. Their pace spearheads Shoaib Akthar and Wasim Akram have scythed almost all the batting line-ups that they confronted. Off-spinner Saqlain Mustaq and bowling all-rounders Azhar Mahmood and Abdul Razzak too have done well so far. Bowling has indeed been the strength of this Pakistani side. Their batting hasn't attained the heights they are known to achieve.

In all likelihood, the fate of this match will be decided by who enjoys a better day, Pakistani bowlers or Indian batsmen. Of course, one cannot discount the capabilities of top-flight batsmen like Saeed Anwar, Inzamam-ul-Haq, Ijaz Ahmed and the batting talent of wicket-keeper Moin Khan and all-rounders Razzak, Mahmood and Akram. But, it is their bowling department that has a clear edge over India.

For India, much depends on how well the Indian bowlers contain the Pakistani batsmen. ShouldPakistan take first strike, India will have to restrict them to a total of 240-250, if the wicket is batsman-friendly. On a seamy track, this will have to be below 220. Likewise, if India is batting first, anything less than 260 will be insufficient in batsman-friendly conditions. On a bowler's wicket, the target can be scaled down to 220. India will not only have to win this match, but also maintain a significant margin of victory as well. A daunting task for Azhar's boys!

On June 9, Zimbabwe plays Australia. In the 1983 World Cup in England, Zimbabwe sprung a major surprise on a star-studded Australian side. A decade later Zimbabwe attained Test-status and has emerged an even better side in recent times. However, on paper the Australian side looks mighty superior to the southern African side and an Australian victory looks more likely, just what India would be hoping for.

June 10 will see favourites South Africa take on New Zealand. Both the teams have a wealth of all-rounders, but South Africa has abetter pace attack, led by Alan Donald, Shaun Pollock and Lance Klusener. A South African victory will be just ideal for India.

Zimababwe plays Pakistan on June 11. This will be followed by India's crucial tie against New Zealand on June 12. Of course, for India the importance of this match would much depend on the mathematical equation (points tally and net differential run rate) of Zimbabwe and New Zealand.June 13 will is see a clash of titans South Africa and Australia. This could be the dress-rehearsal for the finals at the Lords on June 20.