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Friday, June 4, 1999

Sensex has the potential to gain another 100 points 

K Seshadri  
Thursday was a day of consolidation and selective buying at the bourses. The Sensex closed at 3977, posting a gain of 41 points over the previous close of 3936. In a market marked with caution, several scrips made small gains.

The number of advances on BSE went up from 565 to 739, with advance volumes moving up from Rs 811 crore to Rs 988 crore. The number of scrips in decline went down from 578 to 514, and volume went down marginally from Rs 275 crore to Rs 246 crore. On NSE, the number of scrips in advance moved up from 488 to 566, with advance volumes going up from Rs 1185 crore to Rs 1338 crore. The number of scrips in decline moved down from 396 to 369, with decline volumes going up from Rs 370 crore to Rs 401 crore.

But the real story of the day was one of selective and brisk buying. HPCL was up Rs 17, while Hindalco gained Rs 8.5. Larsen & Toubro, M&M were other star performers. Reliance gained Rs 4.8 on the back of news that it was raising product prices. It was certainly not a day for pharmascrips nor for the infotech scrips. On the other hand, traders preferred Bajaj Auto from its somewhat depressed level.

The daily stochastic indicator for the Sensex has been strengthening over the last three sessions and is still not in the overbought zone. The 7-day exponential moving average has been tracing a horizontal line over the last five sessions. It improved from 3927 to 3948. In common man's parlance, the market has undergone a slow, careful and steady consolidation over the last four sessions. The RSI indicator, which is a long term investment indicator, is about to turn green. It is natural to think of the recent tops of the index as the resistance for the current rise. Considering the consolidation picture and the top resistance, the Sensex has the potential to rise another hundred points. But the real story is one of selective buying; and other scrips could join the race.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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