Compaq's industry marketing manager for telecom, e-commerce and ISP, Kallol Hazra, outlined the rapid changes occurring in e-commerce at a `Discovery Seminar on Emerging Technologies for the New Millennium', making the point "if you are not in e-business, you are out of business".

Making a presentation on the occasion, he talked about how web presence and selling online have become crucial in today's world and the immense opportunities offered by e-commerce.

Business cycles are getting compressed. In 1960, it took 20 years for technology to change. The next change took only 10 years and the new revolution of internet has come in even a lesser time. For example, it took 10 years before automatic teller machines were accepted as part of the banking industry. Personal computers took almosteight years before getting common acceptance. Then came local area network and then e-mail took four years while web technology took only three. But experts predict that e-commerce will take just 1.5 years to surpass all these and become all pervasive.

The potential of e-commerce has been estimated by IDC of the US to be $50 billion by year 2000 and an exponential growth to $1,328.9 billion by year 2003 is projected. Truly mind-boggling but some concerns are being aired by solutions providers and users.

Compaq and other solution providers will have to address rapidly changing technology and the way of doing business by keeping pace with new products and solutions. Doing business through the internet means taking note of various factors like impact on the business, 24 hours x 365 days of business operation, competition being just a `click' away, market being dictated by even a single customer and disappearance of geographical boundaries. It all boils down to the term `innovate or evaporate', according toHarza.

In this business several concerns arise. The merchant/manufacturer are concerned about how to adapt to new technology and deal with payment problems and create a website acceptable to customer; telecom companies and ISPs are concerned about stiff competition and value addition; and banks are sceptical about transaction value and high investments required for settling bills. Also, the government is yet to put in place cyber laws for e-commerce to really pick up even though internet users are projected to increase to 5-8 lakh in two years from 2.2 lakh, at present.

Compaq, Hazra said, offers total solutions including interface with banks and markets. But all are concerned about security in the form of SET (secured electronic transmission) which would call for certification of transactions of all involved -- sellers, buyers, banks and service providers.