The latest export estimates reveal that there has been a six-million kg shortfall upto March this year at 40.87 million kg.

A senior industry analyst told The Financial Express that although there was much time left for the Indian tea industry to make up for earlier export targets, much depended on the spate of Russian buying and also the willingness of Egypt to buy teas from India.

According to industry observers, it is doubtful whether the Russian Federation will be able to keep up to its promise of picking up 100 million kg this year via an agreement valid for a period from January 1999 to December 2005.

This agreement was made last year fearing dwindling Russian exports on account of the country's continuing economic crisis. The basic problem now concerns Russia's needs for cheaper teas, but according to analysts Indian tea prices cannotgo below a certain limit.

It may be noted that the south Indian tea prices have been witnessing low levels in recent times following a lack of Russian enquiry at the auction houses.

Apart from Russia, markets like UK, Poland, and Egypt are expected to be under close scrutiny this year. Last year's just released country-wise break-up portrays exports to UK at 19.5mkg in 1998 compared to 26.1mkg in 1997. Russia was also lower at 82.5 mkg compared to 89 mkg in 1997.

The gains have been on account of exports to Libya at 6.4mkg in 1998 as against 1.3 mkg in 1997.

Strangely exports to Iraq have grown phenomenally in 1998 to 10mkg from a meagre 1.3 mkg in 1997.

It is felt that the next few months which happen to be crucial will determine the trend of exports to various countries.

Industry keeps fingers crossed
The Indian tea industry is keeping its fingers crossed on one of its major export markets - Egypt, which has a market of almost 10 million kg.

A recent development in the country hasallowed the import of tea at concessional tariff of three per cent, from the earlier 30 per cent. This would essentially mean increased supplies of Kenyan tea into Egypt which would have its effect on countries like India and Sri Lanka.

Egypt which is primarily a dust market has been witnessing a marked decline in Indian imports over the last few years.