Ahmedabad: The fall in edible oil prices is likely to continue for some more time if the aggressive selling by some large traders and rising imports is any indication.Since last few days, Wilmar Trading Company of Singapore and Felda of Malaysia have been very aggressive sellers. Heavy inflow of edible oil is expected to hit the market within few weeks. Several vessels carrying edible oils are waiting for berth at various ports, said trade sources.
According to market sources, Wilmar, which commands more then sixty per cent share in the import trade, is believed to be bearish about the market. A leading broker said the selling seems to be in the more in the nature of undercutting. Recently it has sold the palm oil to state trading Corporation among other private importers. The other trader, Felda of Malaysia is also seen as a major seller, traders said.
``Despite bumper oilseeds crop in the country, imports are rising and may surpass last year's highs of 21.83 lakh tonne. International prices arecontinue to sliding and may fall further if demand does not picked up. At present at least ten vessels are waiting for the berth at Kandla.'' said Deepak Mehta, joint managing director, Vishal Exports, Ahmedabad.
``Oil prices have lost almost $200 in last few months, and the bottom still seems far away. Due to political reasons government may not hike the duty. Landed price of soya and palm remains around Rs 250 per 10 kg. Though the palm is somewhat dearer than sunflower and soya, traders preferred to import palm oil because of ``credit factor''.
Import from Malaysia takes 15 days to reach indian ports while import from Latin America takes 45 days. Due to shorter transit periods, importers get more financial leverage. So import from Malaysia gives more credit leverage'' said Prem Das, Commodity trader at Vishal Exports.
Since the monsoon is slated to hit the southern India within a fortnight, overseas traders seem in the hurry. A good monsoon may club several bearish factors. The farmers who arehoarding sizable oilseeds like mustard and groundnut to fetch higher prices, may offload their goods. Following a good monsoon, government may hike the import duty, as domestic industry to protect domestic crushing industries, said traders Imports are rising at alarming pace. In the first half of current oil year around 1.5 million tonne oil has been already arrived. Similar quantity is expected to arrive in the second half.
Though the domestic supply is stable, it may shoot up in the next months due to off-loading by farmers. Farmers of north west India, who hoard sizable seed stock to fetch higher prices, might offload their holding if monsoon starts timely.
The summer groundnut crop of Gujarat seems better than expected. The oil contents in the seed is good. The southern states have also produced bumper groundnut crop. The HPS exports may took a beating due to higher Alphatoxin. It will also add the supply.
The leading traders are sitting with their finger crossed for the future crisis. Since lastfew months some big palyers have lsot heavily, and chances of further loses are not ruled out. There was a rumor in the Malasia about a possible wash out of an indian importer. Though there we several arbitration and delivery defaulet happened in during last February, overseas traders seem hardly reluctent for deals. Owing to a free fall Several importers have sufferd heavily in the last few months, said a leading importer who has drastically slowed down his operations in the wake of ongoing bear market.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.