Industry analysts apprehend that if the crop reports from the Jute Balers' Association (a leading body of raw jute traders) considered noteworthy, then the industry is certainly heading for a crisis.

According to the reports from the balers' association, dry spells during April and poor raw jute prices have kept a large number of farmers from sowing the fibre. Instead they went for `teel,' which is a cheap substitute for mustard.

``Till April the farmers were expecting a price of around Rs 1,100 to Rs 1,200 a quintal for the average quality of raw jute but it never reached that level. Only on Thursday it registered the highest level of Rs 1,075 a quintal. This is one major factor as the farmers felt a fresh sowing would only dampen their chancesof a remunerative price. Coupled with it was the weather, which was ideal for teel and they opted for it,'' the analyst said.

However, as of now, industry feels that there is a good amount of the fibre stocked by the farmers, traders and mill owners. ``On the whole, it is felt that the farmers are still holding around 10 lakh bales (1 bale = 180kg) and in this situation their business sense kept them away from sowing the fibre again,'' the analyst added.

The industry analyst has calculated that the shortfall in the raw jute for the year 1999-2000 is likely to be around 20 lakh bales.

``In 1998-99, raw jute production was 75 lakh bales and added to it was a carryover of 30 lakh bales. Fibre imports from Bangladesh, including the illegal trade, was around 8 lakh bales. So the total availability of the crop was 113 lakh bales and the consumption, including the unorganised sector, was around 100 lakh bales. So there will be carryover of 13 lakh bales and this year the fibre production will not be more than67 bales. Hence, the total availability of the fibre will be 80 lakh bales against an industry consumption of 100 lakh bales, which means a shortfall of 20 lakh bales,'' the analyst worked out.

Almost all jute growing areas have reported to be suffering from low production levels, except Lower Assam and some areas in the northern part of Bengal. The worst hit areas are upper Assam, Purnea and Saharsha in Bihar and the whole of south Bengal, which constitutes districts like Murshidabad, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, Hooghly and Midnapore. The report also stated that sowing in these areas have also started late. ``Generally from the last week of May or the first week June, fresh fibres from upper Assam starts entering the jute market. This year, it is almost a month late. Only in second week of July we can expect the fibres from Assam. During this lean period -- June and July -- prices of raw jute are likely to skyrocket,'' the analyst added.