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Wednesday, May 19, 1999

Ride the bull surf with caution 

K Seshadri  
Yesterday this column hinted that there was no signal yet for selling. This view got validated in the market on Monday. The Sensex not only posted a gain of 46 points, but the bullish fervour has caught on a wide front as indicated by the market data.

The number of advances at the BSE has leaped from 463 to 681. That the buying wave continues to be strong can be seen from the advance volume which shot up from Rs 517 crore to Rs 1296 crore. In contrast the number of scrips in decline has shrunk from 749 to 551, with decline volumes moving down sharply from Rs 1287 crore to Rs 500 crore.

The figures at NSE underscores the market bullishness even better, Tuesday being the last day for the settlement there. The number of advances here exploded from 291 to 549, with advance volume flaring more than double from Rs 853 crore to Rs 1809 crore. The number of scrips in decline came down from 691 to 489, and volumes shrank dramatically from Rs 1922 crore to Rs 738 crore.

The Sensex opened on a confident note at4073, gaining 34 points over the previous close of 4039. The intra-day high at 4130 zoomed up above the previous high of 4113. This is quite significant, considering that on Monday the index was showing signs of fatigue at the peak. On a similar note even the day's low at 4053 was a gain of 64 points over the previous low of 3889. The index closed at 4085 gaining 46 points day over day.

The RSI indicator is into the overbought zone, but it could comfortably stay there for a while, if the past is any guidance. The MACD also has not given any hint for a sell.

But make no mistake, the rate of rise has slowed down. The index is now advancing at a moving average rate of just around 28 points every day. It has slowed down from an average gain of 40 points during the brisk rise. The Sensex is being kept buoyed by a mix of scrips, yow-yowing at the top end. Booking profits at the upper end and re-entry again at slightly lower levels is the strategy for this market.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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