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Saturday, May 8, 1999

Time to book profits, but avoid shortselling at present 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
It was a surprising rally. There were hints that the market had bottomed out, but few would have dreamed of such a sharp spurt. From the previous week's low of 3183 points, the Sensex has showed a 590 points rally. Even news that the elections will be held in September failed to put a break on the uptrend.

The rally was triggered by an uptrend in public sector stocks like Bhel and HPCL. But Reliance, SBI and ITC were the main fuel-providers. The interesting fact about the rally is that the heaviest of the lot, HLL, has so far not participated in the current rally. In fact, it has shown a negative trend. Had HLL moved in line with other pivotals like SBI, Reliance and ITC, the Sensex would be have been even higher by at least 150 points.

More than the values, the best thing about the current rally is that it would provide a major boost to the sentiment which was adversely affected by the political developments. And the credit for this goes to the FIIs who showed an aggressive approach and boughtheavily.

But what should one expect after a one-way move of nearly 600 points? Profit-booking, isn't it? Although the sentiment is bullish, profit-booking should be the key word word for the next two-three days. But that does not mean that one should go on a short-selling spree. The market is hot and any tinkering on the opposite side may backfire. While the profit-booking seems right policy for traders, for the investors, the time for that is not yet come.

For the next couple of days, the Sensex should some correction as pivotals may shed some points. Reliance is near its resistance level and that should attract profit-takers. Although SBI is yet to show some signs of weakness, profit-booking is most likely. As far as ITC is concerned, although it has entered into a new territory, profit-booking cannot be ruled out.

Bhel, Bajaj Auto and MTNL are, however, in a better position. HLL is negative and will weaken further once it drops below Rs 2012. Hindalco, however, is excellent and should extend itsgains in the coming days.In the Tata counter, ACC has shown a dream run and the stock does not have any barrier befor Rs 1,850. Profit-booking however is likely on counters like Tata Tea and Tisco. Telco has shown a strong buying, but is yet to get out of the negative phase.

The rally in software too appears to be fading. The rally is likely to take a break before its start the second phase its northward journey. Infosys, Satyam Computers, Pentafour Software, and NIIT may come under selling pressure.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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