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Friday, May 7, 1999

Bonus rumours drive ITC to new high 

Sanjay Sardana and Nalini D'Souza  
Mumbai/New Delhi, May 6: Strong rumours of a bonus issue propelled ITC Limited's scrip to its all-time high of Rs 1,106 on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Apart from a liberal bonus, the market is expecting a stupendous growth in earnings from the tobacco major.

The net profit for the full year is expected to be in the region of Rs 630-650 crore. The fourth quarter net profit is expected to be in the region of Rs 145-155 crore. This translates into a growth of almost 46 per cent in the fourth quarter and an over all growth of 23 per cent. The company has already achieved a net profit of Rs 485.78 crore on a turnover of Rs 2,616.12 crore for the first nine months of 1998-99. The growth in bottomline in the fourth quarter is expected to be essentially volume-driven.

Fund based buying prompted speculators to join the bandwagon at the ITC counter. During mid-session the rumours strengthened with a section of market betting on the bonus declaration on Saturday. The stock hit the upper limit of the daily price bandon the Bombay Stock Exchange at Rs 1,106.45. At the National Stock Exchange the stock was locked at Rs 1,101.60. According to brokers, at the circuit price the stock registered an outstanding buy order of over one lakh shares between the two exchanges. The counter clocked a phenomenal volume of 54.64 lakh shares. Interestingly, on the last day of the settlement on the Calcutta Stock Exchange the stock attracted a backwardation charge of Rs 3.50. It may be recalled that for the past three consecutive sessions the stock has been attracting backwardation charges indicative of the absence of short positions at this counter. On the BSE the stock was traded at a weighted average price of Rs 1,069.16.

According to market sources Morgan Broking, GE Capital, Warburg Pictet and Schrodders were rumoured to have picked up huge chunks of ITC at Rs 1,000 levels. DSP was also reportedly a buyer at Rs 900 levels. However it could not be confirmed.

Despite the 8 per cent jump in the stock price its GDR continued to betrade at a hefty premium over the underlying stock reflecting the FII participation at the counter.

On Thursday its GDR was traded at $ 33.25, a premium of 28.4 per cent over its underlying stock. According to market sources domestic institutions emerged as arbitrageurs at the counter considering the huge price difference between the local and GDR.

According to analysts, the upward revision of ITC's select brands recently has also contributed to the bottomline. This would help the company post higher figures in the current fiscal as well, feel analysts.

The market expects a liberal capitalisation of reserves in the ratio of one share for every one held. Although the market is speculating heavily on a liberal bonus, the company has not been liberal when it comes to distribution of free shares in the form of bonus. The last bonus by ITC was way back in 1994 and the bonus ratio of one share for every five share too was not favourable.

Further, the company is well placed in terms of reserves, but theequity is already on the higher side at Rs 245.4 crore. The reserves at Rs 1448.36 crore yield a book value of Rs 69.02. Although servicing a huge equity may not really be problem for the tobacco giant, but expanding the equity through capitalisation of reserves would certainly make a dent in the company's earning per shere and other ratios.

The ITC stock came on its own and spurt sharply in the last half an hour of trading. ITC stock zoomed amidst heavy investment buying and among others, UTI was reported to be an active buyer at the counter. The stock clocked a high turnover of over 35.7 lakh shares on the National Stock Exchange and froze at the upper ened of the filter at Rs 1101.6. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, the stock locked at the upper ceiling at Rs 1106.45 with a total traded volume of 18.93 lakh shares.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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