Last Friday, this column pointed out that the Sensex could snap back to 3426 levels quickly. And therefore it recommended an agressive stance, which would bring in quick rewards. This forecast was vindicated on Tuesday. The market opened with the Sensex at 3382, some four points above the previous close of 3378. It posted a gain of 121 points over the opening to touch an intra day high of 3503. The opening happened to be the low for the day as well, reflecting the one way bull ride. The market closed with Sensex at the high of the day at 3503.The 12 days' exponential moving average is at 3407. The daily stochastic indicator has leaped into the overbought zone. On the other hand the RSI indicator shows the potential for the index to move up much higher. But on the extremely short run, one should not be surprised if the market tends to see intra-day and inter day profit booking as the Sensex rises.
The Sensex has no technical barrier and can sail through uptil 3665, where it would face a resistance. Onits march to this target, an intermediate resistance could be felt at 3580 level.
The bullish undertone is reflected in the strong surge in volumes. At the BSE the number of advances went up from 616 to 762, with advance volumes doubling up from Rs 874 crore to Rs 1616 crore. The number of declines went down from 420 to 378, with decline volumes going down from Rs 180 crore to Rs 20 croe.
At the NSE the number of scrips in advance went up from 260 to 648, with advance volumes almost quadrupling from Rs 427 crore to Rs 1655 crore.The scrips in decline went dwon from 632 to 320, with volumes in decline shrinking from Rs 873 crore to Rs 23 crore.
The volume picture suggests that bulls have entered the market in big strength. Also there has been no sign of retraction, despite the closing of the NSE week. This suggests that the market could have entered a new bull wave.
News has just reached this writer about EC deciding on election in September. Investors will do well to check this angle out before actingon the above write up. Do check up if the news reached the market before it closed or not. Act on that basis.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.