NEW DELHI, Apr 30: The assurances by the prime minister and the finance minister on economic reforms in the past two days has infused a new lease of life into cyclical and core sector stocks. Apart from the core sector stocks, a few commodity stocks have seen buying in the past few sessions.The fund managers and brokers too have started talking about an economic revival and a few scrips have already shown signs of a strong turnaround. Above all, the phenomenal growth levels of software companies is now under scrutiny. With the economy showing signs of a faint recovery, stocks from the power, power equipment, cement, construction and steel sector are being keenly followed. Stocks like Bhel, Larsen & toubro, MTNL and ACC have been bought heavily in the past few sessions. These stocks have also been partially driven due to specific reasons. For instance, ACC is on the rise on rumours of a likely open offer.
So what does this mean for the ordinary investor? For a discerning investor, these stocks at thecurrent valuations offer excellent investment buying opportunity. What is important is a very limited downward risk as the scrips are already lying well below their post-budget highs and are trading at very attractive price earning multiples.
Take for instance, the PSU power equipment giant Bharat Heavy Electricals. The scrip, at the current level of Rs 170, is almost 36 per cent down from its post-budget high of Rs 268. The 20 per cent drop in the net profit for 1998-99 has already been factored into the price. However, the market has yet to discount the huge order book position the company has obtained. BHEL continues to enjoy a strong market share of over 80 per cent.
Here are a few other scrips which deserve a closer look:
ABB: The worst may be over for this multinational power equipment major. The scrip at the current valuation of around Rs 290 offers excellent investment option. The scrip, after a disastrous financial year, has already taken a severe beating and has dropped from a high ofRs 550 to around Rs 260. The scrip has been amongst the worst sufferers in the BSE's group A and has lost close to 47 per cent. The scrip however, has shown s strong recovery in the past few sessions and has reached close to the Rs 300 mark again.
The recent merger of Swiss major ABB with French conglomerate Alstom in the area of power generation would strengthen the Indian arm, ABB Limited and may well pose a problem for other existing equipment suppliers including Siemens and Bharat Heavy Electricals. The last financial year was disappointing and ABB reported a 60 per cent drop in net profit to Rs 37.7 crore for the year ended December 1998. Total income was lower at Rs 893.4 crore compared to Rs 1,084.2 crore in the previous year. But for the current fiscal, the outstanding order book position is as high as Rs 1,800 crore.
L&T: Larsen & Toubro's scrip at Rs 190 is already down 23 per cent from its post-budget high of Rs 245. The scrip, on the back of heavy investment buying by institutions hasshot bach strongly from Rs 175 to the current level of Rs 190 on BSE.
The Rs-6000 crore engineering giant is already on the move and is going in for an extensive organisational restructuring with the growing need to face global competition. The company has already identified engineering procurement and construction (EPC) business as the core area apart from cement. The engineering major, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), is engaged in construction, turnkey projects, engineering and the manufacture of related equipment and cement. Besides, the company has forayed into infrastructural development in a big way and has invested in power projects.
L&T is also looking at increasing its cement capacities, mainly through the acquisition route. The acquisition of Narmada Cements was a step in that direction and the company has reached its target capacity of 12 million tonnes. L&T's cement division contributes around 22 to 23 per cent to the company's turnover and will be crucial for future performance.
Wartsila NSD:The multinational's performance in the first quarter has been exceptional. The net profit has zoomed from Rs 1.1 crore to Rs 3.6 crore on a turnover of Rs 64 crore. The company's scrip has lost close to 30 per cent from its post-budget high of Rs 321 and is currently trading at Rs 225. Any upturn in the economy would boost the company's performance.
Wartsila Diesel is the leader in the domestic medium-speed diesel engine segment with a market share of 70 per cent. It enjoys the technical support from its parent, Wartsila Oy, Finland, which is a global leader with a market share of 22 per cent in diesel and gas engines of above 1 MW output.
The company imports components from the parent company and assembles diesel engine sets with a capacity of less than 6 MW output. Given that Wartsila has a relatively healthy order book position, it is an excellent bet at the current level of Rs 225.
Hindalco: Hindalco's scrip in the political drama of the past three weeks has remained more or lessstable. The scrip at Rs 570 is down just 7 per cent from its post-budget high of Rs 614 and has shot up by Rs 60 in the past few sessions.
The aluminium major Hindalco, along with the other players have already withdrawn the discounts being offered for the offtake. This follows the firm trend in the aluminium prices overseas on the LME. This augurs well for the Indian aluminium industry as well.
However, the cause of concern is the lull in the offtake. Further, a planned foray into the automobile sector augurs well for the aluminium companies in the long run. The public sector National Aluminium and Hindalco have planned to enter the automobile sector as the demand for aluminium is growing at a considerable rate.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.