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Tuesday, April 27, 1999

Sensex could test 3014 level 

K Seshadri  
The dissolution of the present Lok Sabha and country heading for another mid-term poll has led to another round of sell-off in stock markets. While the Sensex lost 162 points to close at 3245, it could fall further to 3014, if the elections cannot be held immediately.

The index has recorded a downward gap, which connotes strong bearishness. Technically it has now come to rest on an important support level at 3245. The Election Commissioner will decide on the date of polling after a meeting with the President on Monday evening.

Here are the alternate scenarios. If the elections can be held at the shortest possible notice, the market has the potential to bounce back right from the 3245 level. However, if the elections are delayed then the index will be testing its support at 3245. If that does not hold the index could move down to 3014.

However, a look at the leading heavy weights in the Sensex portfolio is not very inspiring even for the support to emerge at the 3245 level, despite the fact that the index has fallen by over 200 points already in the last three sessions.

HLL has always attracted FII buying when the market is down, but this time around it may not help the index much. As it had risen sharply recently, it has the technical potential to fall. It could take support at Rs 2062, but if fund managers decide to wait it out it could go down as low as Rs 1966. I recommend buying at half your target at Rs 1966, and buy more at Rs 1670.

Other buying opportunities would be Reliance, obviously at Rs 120, MTNL at Rs 134-Rs 140. BSES at Rs 137-Rs 140, Castrol at Rs 700, Gujarat Ambuja at Rs 245 and more at Rs 224, HPCL at Rs 140, Hindalco at Rs 515 and Rs 452, ITC at Rs 842 (stop loss at Rs 837) Larsen at Rs 164-Rs 168, Mahindra and Mahindra at Rs 194, Ranbaxy at Rs 510 and Rs 470, SBI at Rs 148, Reliance at Rs 120, Telco at Rs 118.

Long term investors should pick up some Reliance Industries, SBI, Gujarat Ambuja and Hindalco. Software and pharma scrips are under watch!

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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