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Tuesday, April 27, 1999

Fund managers see an edge for BJP 

Parul Monga  
Mumbai, April 26: Fund managers across-the-board see the likelihood of a BJP-led government at the centre but with a lesser dependence on coalition partners. More, they peg the BJP's possible score at 210-plus. But they see a limited downside to the markets from the current levels. "Which means that the prices in the market have already discounted the uncertainty, and the mood of the market will now be determined by the lead time of going to the polls", said the chief executive officer of Sun F&C Asset Management Company (AMC), Nikhil Khattau.

"Markets have shown their displeasure and have reacted. But, discounting the political uncertainty, this is an appropriate opportunity to enter good value stocks", added Khattau. According to Shekhar Sathe, chief executive officer, Kotak Mahindra AMC: "The nervousness in the markets is expected but all this transformation and uncertainty is a part of the reform process. Political upheavals and uncertainty cannot be divorced from the entire economic reform process. The fluid scenario also gives us an opportunity to rethink strategies including political strategies and finding new ways of doing things". Reflecting on the current developments Shahzad Madon equity fund manager at Prudential ICICI AMC said that it is highly unlikely that the markets will fall below the 3,000 level in the short term. Continued on Madon opined that the worst is over in both the economic and business cycles and there are faint signs of improvement in the economy which would lead to an improvement in the sentiment on the margin.

Added assistant vice-president at Apple Mutual Fund, Malay Sameer: "Signs of revival of the economy and the stocks available at attractive valuations should be used to enter good stocks."

Sameer said that technically the markets should find support and test the 3,150 levels. "At this level the completion of the shoulder pattern will take place and the market will drag sideways around this index level in the short term", said Sameer.

Stated the chief executive officer of LIC mutual fund, RG Sharma:"The mood and the direction of the market will depend on the date of the polls. If the polls are in June than the markets will improve but if the elections are in September than the uncertainty will drag the markets down by another 100-150 points from the current levels."

Apart from the markets fund managers are of the opinion that the political uncertainty would not adversely impact the fortunes of the mutual fund industry, with the finance bill already cleared. Khattau sees this opportunity leading to a `flight to quality' by investors. This means that in the current atmosphere investors would come to professional fund managers to manage teir money.

Sathe also sees a positive sentiment. ``With increased complexity in the markets and the ability of fund managers to switch money between debt and equity markets depending upon the market situation, mutual funds would be preferred,'' said Sathe.

Observed Sameer: "When markets fall the retail sentiment also falls in direct proportion to it. But with the signs of economy improving and the markets consolidating the retail investor will get attracted to the mutual funds in view of the sops given in the budget".

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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