What were the lessons of the 12th Lok Sabha? First and foremost, it should teach politicians that an alliance with someone who has a personal agenda should be shunned like the plague. The BJP's alliance with Jayalalitha cost it dear. The second important lesson is that the non-BJP parties should realise that mere anti-BJPism is no cementing factor. If the non-BJP parties want to provide an alternative, they will have to do so on the basis of alternative policies and programmes. Trying to cobble together a government merely in order to deny power to the BJP is not viable. Not only the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, but the Communists also need to internalise this lesson. Opportunism cannot be a substitute for a political programme. That does not mean, however, that other regional parties should not be accommodated in an alliance, preferably a pre-poll alliance.

Regionalism is here to stay. A common agenda for these alliances will also go a long way in assuring the electorate of the alliance's ability to provide a stable government. The defeat on the floor of the house also holds lessons for the BJP. To a large extent, the party has been able to replace the Congress as the party of the middle ground. But as seen during the discussions on the attacks against Christians, the party, and especially its allied organisations, harbours sectarian elements which stand in the way of broadbasing the party. The compulsions of electoral politics dictate that the BJP must moderate its social ideology and make it more accommodative to the aspirations of minorities and underprivileged social groups.

Economic decisions will be on hold till the elections. The stockmarket has more or less bottomed out, and as the outlines of a more stable government become clearer, the market should rebound. A noticeable feature of the market has been the continuation of buying by foreign institutional investors in spite of all the political uncertainty. This is more the effect of higher allocations to Asia, but it nevertheless provides a convenient floor for the market. If the first opinion polls show the prospect of a stable government, as the gut feeling already seems to indicate, the gloom over the stockmarkets, as well as the economy, will be dispelled.