The figure has been arrived at by making calculations from the data released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) which put the total milk production in India in 1998 at 70.8 million tonnes and growth rate at five per cent per annum.

Milk production, if extrapolated at an average present rate of growth, may reach around 250 million tonnes by the year 2020 provided similar conditions continue to prevail, said IDA president A Banerjee.

According to FAO report, global milk production was 520.6 million tonnes in 1997 and is expected to grow at the rate of 0.5 per cent to one per cent. Thus, by 2020, the world milk production would be between 620-650 million tonnes per annum. With India's milk production likely to be about 250 million tonnes, its share in total production would increase to 30 per cent.

However, things are not as smooth as the figures show, said Banerjee. "To achieve the target of 250 million tonnes, a lot of effort has to be put both from the farmers' as well as the government's side."

Post-liberalisation, there has been an increased demand for quality milk as the stress on sanitary and phytosanitary requirements has been amplified. The quality of milk produced in the country, however, continues to be low as milk production is confined to poor farmers and land less labourers.

However, Banerjee said that wherever cooperatives have been formed, there has been an integration of good extension with good animal husbandry practices which has resulted in improved quality of milk. "The government should work towards extending the cooperative network so that more farmers are covered under this and there is an overall improvement in quality."

Banerjee hopes that the milk production system in the country would get a pull according to the demands of the segmentised milk and allied product markets, helping it to become more specialised and in tune with the increasingly competitive world outside. "Farmers in India have already started making enquiries and adopting new techniques for production of milk. This is a healthy sign which indicates that when global pressure intensifies farmers would be prepared to make changes accordingly."

But for this to happen, support from the government is vital, said Banerjee. "The government needs to make policies which are sympathetic to the needs of the farmers. Technology should be made available at a cheap price so that more and more farmers can make use of it."

Banerjee said that in the next few years technology of long-shelf life raw milk may come up to complement the current raw milk collection system. "Milk transportation in cans may gradually be replaced by raw long shelf life milk or large continues of chilled milk."

Despite the advantage of having the lowest farm-gate milk price, cost of production of milk is high because of its high procurement cost. Average milk yield in the country is also one of the lowest among major milk producing countries. To emerge as the leading milk producers in the world, India has to overcome these obstacles, said Banerjee. "We have to earnestly work towards improving average milk yield of our cattle," he added.