In the first 21 days of this month, total coal stocks at the utilities declined by about one million tonnes at a time when they should have gone up ahead of the monsoons. According to the trends shown by data from the Central Electricity Authority, the overall stock with the utilities will be enough for only 12 days, down from 21 days on April 1.

At some utilities, coal stocks have declined below 10-days' level against the ideal level of 32 days and the critical position of 21 days.

Some of the worst affected are Barauni station of Bihar State Electricity Board (BSEB) with a reported stock of zero, Badarpur of Delhi Vidyut Board (2 days), Chandrapur of MSEB (4 days), Wanakbari of Gujarat SEB (4 days), Kolaghat in Bengal (7 days), Ukai of GSEB (9 days) and Koradi of MSEB (10 days).

Supply disruptions are normal during the monsoons, when coal mines cut production and rail movements are affected. So if the utilities do not rustle up the funds needed to stock up ahead of the June-September period, a power crisis could grip key areas of the country.

During the monsoon months, the coal industry usually reduces production by eight to nine million tonnes below normal levels.

According to the CEA data, the stocks could fall by 3.5 million tonnes to 8.3 million tonnes on July 1 against 11.8 million tonnes reported on April 1.Normally, the all-India stock is raised to a minimum of 21 days before the end of May and the onset of the monsoons.

Even during normal periods, the average lead time for carrying coal from mines to a powerhouse about 1000km away is six to seven days. The SEBs do not have the funds to stock up because of heavy losses caused by subsidies to the agricultural sector, power theft, non-realisation of bills and bloated workforces. The agriculture sector gets power at only 25 paise per unit, while it costs a power utility 40 paise just to buy the coal to generate on unit of power.

However, since November last year, CIL has made it clear to the power companies that they must furnish an irrevocable letter of credit or pay in advance for 10 days worth of coal. CIL was owed a total of Rs 4,900 crore by the utilities as on March 31, 1999.