ABB stands out among its peers for a strange reason. For all heavy engineering majors, the last quarter (January-March) is the best quarter because they follow the percentage of completion method of accounting for contracts. Corporates usually prefer to complete projects by March so that clients can claim the tax benefits (after trial runs, operations can begin by September 30 and hence the depreciation benefit for the full year is available). But ABB's results do not show this phenomenon. The reason for this is hard to understand. The probable reason is that for projects executed by ABB the schedule is such that the completion is during October-December period.The first quarter of 1999 (ABB has December year ending) was substantially better than the corresponding period of the previous year. One probable reason for the improved performance could be that in the first quarter of the previous year, projects could be at an advanced stage of completion. Between 25 and 50 per cent of the project could have been completed, resulting in higher allocation of expenses but not the same impact on the bottomline.
Unlike Siemens, ABB has been concentrating on clients with a better record of payment. The policy of better receivables at the cost of growth in business has paid off as is reflected by sharply lower interest burden. The interest burden at Rs 1.26 crore is lower by 52 per cent on a quarter to quarter basis. The much improved performance in the first quarter has failed to impress the market. What is worse is that in the last 10 trading sessions, the decline has been on heavy volumes. In the last few trading sessions, the stock has declined by Rs 16 to Rs 302 on higher than average volumes. The clear indication is that even at the six-year low, the scrip does not merit investment. The stock is nowhere near bottoming out. It is a better option to exit even at this price.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.