New Delhi, Apr 25: The ongoing political drama has made economists pessimistic about the pace of economic reforms. While talking to The Financial Express, they expressed doubts on the continuance of the reform process in critical areas.The reform process will get stalled at least for another six months, said VN Pandit of Delhi School of Economics. "It has already got a beating," he added.
Pandit said the budget presented by Yashwant Sinha was fairly good and the decisions taken by the Vajpayee led BJP government in last 3-4 months were indicating acceleration in liberalisation and revival of the economy. "The sudden change in political milieu has again pushed the economic reforms in doldrums," he said.
Pandit felt that a combination of Congress and the Communist parties and others will not be able to continue financial reforms with the required pace.Noted economist Raja J Chelliah said if such a Government comes to power, "It will have to slowdown economic reform process as a compromise".
"They mightcontinue with reforms in the areas like sales tax, improvement in the financial condition of states and management of fiscal deficit," he said. In the controversial areas, though, they won't be able to do much, added Chelliah.
Disinvestment, on which left and other parties have reservations, may see a twist in approach, he said. "They may agree on improvement in the working of PSUs rather than their revival through disinvestment." "Entry of multinationals asking for a majority stake in Indian companies will also get affected if such a Government comes to power," said Chelliah. He felt that maintaining the fiscal deficit at a manageable level was the most important task for any Government assuming power. Bringing foreign investment in the country and public sector reform were the other two major areas of concern, he said.
"To gain any breakthrough in these areas, political stability is a must," he added.
Chelliah, however, pointed out that identifying reforms with all that needs to be done to improve theeconomy would be erroneous. "Economy can easily move and improve through identified changes, even if there is contradiction among the political parties on certain issues," he said. BB Bhattacharya, head of the development planning centre of the Institute of Economic Growth agreed with Chelliah. "Though there will be pulls and pressures from different directions if an arrangement between congress and left and other supporting parties comes to power, the economy on the whole will not get affected," he felt. Bhattacharya said that the contradictions associated with such a Government will only affect large industries.
"The policies, formulated to reform sectors like telecom, insurance and PSUs will be put into the back burner," he said.
Bhattacharya felt that there will be a status quo on major policies associated with the reform process. "Until the political condition stabilises, it will be hard to continue with financial reforms," he added.The forecasting expert, however, said "Unless there is a majorpolitical chaos, there won't be any effect of political developments on economy. "For a while, economy will have to adjust with the political developments," said Bhattacharya. He pointed out that the economy being largely dependent on agriculture, which remains insulated from the politics, political uncertainties won't affect the economy much.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.