But when one considers the fact that the ruling coalition has now decided on life (or death) beyond its troublesome southern ally, there could be a major rally at the bourses in case it survives this political crisis. Marketmen would do well to remember that the last real major rally had taken place when the Narasimha Rao led Congress government has survived a confidence vote at the height of the so called Big Bull's `suitcase allegations'.

Bull operators could consider taking up positions at the counters of Castrol at Rs 810 (square up at Rs 835), Satyam Computers at Rs 1315 (square up at Rs 1390) and Wartsila Diesel at Rs 245 (square up at Rs 270). Short positions could be considered at the counters of IPCL at Rs 108 (cover up at Rs 93) and Larsen & Toubro at Rs 220 (cover up at Rs205).

There are no dark horse bets this week, although investment opportunities can be availed of by discerning investors at the counters of Telco if it dips below Rs 125 and Colgate, if it dips below Rs 160. Yet, even at this stage, it would be prudent to keep an even closer watch on the political drama rather than on the market alone, as the influence of the former on the latter especially at this critical juncture cannot be easily dismissed.

(Ashok Kumar heads Lotus Strategic Consultants, Mumbai)