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Monday, April 12, 1999

Bleak scenario 

FE NEWS SERVICE  
The latest set of quick estimates of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) from the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) point to a continuing bleak industrial scenario. But none but the most starry-eyed observer was expecting anything better. The data actually points to an improvement in industrial production. For example, during the months of January and February 1999, the general index level was at a record high for the year, improving by 5.34 per cent and 4.92 per cent YoY for the entire year. And this improvement was largely led by the manufacturing sector, where the YoY growth rates were stunning in comparison with what Indian industry did during the rest of the year. But that in itself is not a cause for celebration. For within those numbers lie a number of industries that are regressing further. Take some of the categories within the textiles industry. The manufacture of cotton textiles are down by 9 per cent YoY, apparel manufacture is down by 3.3 per cent, while the production of base metalsare down by 3 per cent as well.

The second point is that even though the growth of manufacturing is up, the production of equipment and machinery is lower, but this need not be viewed all that negatively. Increase in orders for machinery means an increase in the capital stock, but under the present circumstances, the absence of orders for plant and machinery need not mean the opposite.

Indian industry has been consolidating and idle capacities in a number of industries are being taken over by the stronger players. Thus merger and acquisition activity or purchase of existing assets would result in stronger bottomlines, although there may not be any aggregate increase in capital stock.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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