The expected optimism is missing from majority of the industry bigwigs. Says Hindustan Lever general manager (exports) Robin Banerjee: The Exim policy is not a product of well-thought process. The policy is not a export policy but a import policy-with expanded list of items under the open general licence (894 items on OGL and 414 more on the Special Import Licence)-longer and much too ahead than demanded under the World Trade Organisation (OGL) treaty.

"Barring the announcement ofconverting the existing export oriented units (EOUs) and export processing zones (EPZs) into free trade zones (FTZs), the policy does not contain much for the exporters. On analysing, I find the net effect of the policy provisions is zero."

One of the major reason for negative responses is that the policy lacks industry specific focus which the commerce ministry had promised since the past one year. After the success of the provisions for the electronics/ software sector, the commerce ministry had announced export boosting measures only for the gems and jewellery sector. Little wonder, therefore, exporters in this sectors are happy.

"For other sectors we have clubbed most of the demands," says export commissioner, ministry of commerce, Anil Swarup.

Two, in the words of the executive quoted earlier: "There's no real positive message for the exporting community," and therefore, industry sees no real benefits-money-in export activities given the ongoing recession and cut throat competition in the globalmarkets dominated by the developed world.

The commerce minister himself did not appear confident on the success of his own proposals announced last year. On Wednesday last, addressing members of the Chemical Pharmaceuticals & Cosmetics Export Promotion Council (Cemexcil), Hegde said the export growth rate for 1998-99 will be around 3-4 per cent, against the exhuberent figure of 20 per cent he was promised by the Federation of Indian Exporters' Organisation (Fieo) former president Ramu Deora. Not wanting to commit any figure, Hegde said of the latest provisions in the Exim policy: "The encouraging measures would make 1999-2000 better for exporters."

The political uncertainty that looms large over the economy as a whole, seems to hold back the ministers from being optimistic on their own proposals. The gems and jewellery exporting community seems to be the only sector which is happy, while majority of the other sectors are neither happy nor confident that the provisions will boost the country's exports inthe current year as is expected. The processed diamond exports have jumped 12 per cent during 1998-99 "against all odds," in the words fo Gems & Jewellery Promotion Council's president Praveenshankar Pandya.

"For the first time, India has overtaken diamond exports of Israel, the world's largest value-added exporter. We now look forward to cash in on the latest millennium bug that has gripped the world over."

Pandya, however, will not venture to set the export target for 1999-2000 despite feeling that the policy is "bold and pragmatic". Last year, Pandya was confident the industry will achieve a 20 per cent export growth. By the end, it was 12 per cent.

The observation that the net impact of the policy is zero, is considered to be too harsh. Even Kerala industries minister Susheela Gopalan last week is reported to have asked Prime Minister Vajpayee and the commerce minister to immediately withdraw the policy modifications saying these were harmful to the state's economy.

Gopalan in an officialstatement had pointed out that the modified policy would break the backbone of the state's economy. The inclusion of pepper, cardamom and ginger and other commodities under the open general licence in the modified Exim policy would adversely affect the foreign exchange earnings and the state's future in the trade of agricultural products.

Last Thursday, the Kerala assembly passed a resolution urging the Centre to withdraw the modifications. The minister said that the decision to import spices without any hurdles as proposed in the modified Exim policy, close on the heels of the Indo-Sri Lankan accord that hampered the state's interest, would destroy the state's economic base.

According to All India Plastic Manufacturers' Association (AIPMA) president Arvind Mehta: "The policy will result in flooding of foreign plastic goods- toys, pens, giftsets and the like. Coupled with the ban on import of second hand machinery which was used to upgrade the small to medium units, this policy will make the domesticplastic goods industry sick further."

This is true for all other sectors as well, exporters maintain.

Also, the Exim policy is said to be aimed at helping foreign monopolies and for implementing the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) conditions more harshly on the farming community. The Kerala minister says that spices should be withdrawn from the OGL list or else protection should be given to the domestic agricultural market by hiking the import duty to the maximum level.

But, the officials in the commerce ministry have different views for obvious reasons. Says Swarup: "For the first time, the government has tried to reduce the procedural hurdles in getting the licence, and soon these will be available online. This alone is a major benefit for the exporters."

Adds Swarup: "Instead of addressing the industries's demand separately, we have met their demands by clubbing these in the new policy."

Swarup's colleague in the commerce ministry, Shipra Biswas feels the Exim policy has taken a step further in"debureaucratisation" of procedures.

"During the whole year, we had given many industry specific provisions to boost exports." Excessive bureacratisation of procedures did hamper export activities. And in the words of one of the former leading diamond exporter: Till date we took care of the customs officials, now we will take care of the exports, provided of course, the new notifications for converting EOUs/EPZs into FTZs are exporter friendly."

The government is expected to announce the first notification for FTZs by end-April.

One of the major concern cited by exporters as regards the misuse of the customs-free atmosphere that is expected to be given in the FTZs. "There is every likelihood of underinvoicing the imports and overinvoicing the exports to give an impression of positive returns from the FTZs".

And debureacratisation and setting up FTZs alone would not boost exports. "There's hardly anything new in the Exim policy," feels The Plastics and Linoleum Export Promotion Council (Plexconcil)executive director RP Kalyanpur.

What is more the Exim policy is likely to further deepen the conflict between the edible oils importing community (traders) and the local overcapcitated oilseed extractors'. The extractors have been crying hoarse for curtailing import of finished products (edible oils) and to ease import of edible oilseeds to survive in the overcapacitated and under utilised industry. But neither the agriculture ministry nor the commerce ministry have conceded to their demands. Instead, the edible oils imports have been put under OGL thereby hurting the interests of the extractors further.