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Thursday, April 8, 1999
Global demand pact
International commodity prices have, of late, shown signs of improvement. The year 1998 was very bad for the international commodity markets, and the price of almost every commodity hit a new low.But the prospects of a sustained rally in commodity prices are clouded. The argument is simple. The improvement in prices is not on account of a real change in demand but is the result of limiting supply. Oil is a good example. OPEC's steps to cut production substantially have brought a sharp recovery in crude oil prices, touching a peak of $14.5 per barrel recently. The question is: Is controlling supply the right solution?From the producers' point of view, the answer is yes, at least in the short run. Since low prices failed to spark additional demand, the only option producers have to reduce losses is to cut production, which at least promises higher realisation from whatever is sold. If one were to simply go by the track record, a strict control over supply is possible, but only when the producers are united.Take aluminium. When international aluminium prices were under pressure in the early part of this decade, the major aluminium producing countries agreed to curtail production. This helped an initial recovery in prices which was further aided when demand showed some improvement. And the current prices warrant the repetition of such an arrangement. But its success in the long run would entirely depend on the demand scenario six to nine months hence. Continued lack of demand would exert strong pressures on countries to breach agreements. And this is a very plausible scenario if the infusion of money into the Japanese economy does not yield the desired results. The prospects for inflation worldwide therefore remain low. Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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