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Tuesday, April 6, 1999

Software valuations turn attractive yet again 

Sunita Nagpal and Nandita Datta  
New Delhi, Apr 5: The valuations of software stocks have turned attractive after Monday's bear onslaught on the bourses. The sharp erosion in the values of software stocks provides an excellent entry-point for investors wishing to ride the software boom ahead of the fourth-quarter results. With most players in the industry expected to better last year's 100 per cent bottomline growth, its now just a lull before the storm. As the software companies gear up to announce their results for the quarter ended March 1999, the bulls should be back with a bang.

For those who had missed the bus last time around, its now time to join the party. On Monday, the Sensex lost nearly 4.5 per cent with most of the software majors hitting the lower end of circuit filter. However, the timing of the fall could not have been better. Infosys Limited, the market favourite, is scheduled to announce its full-year results on April 9. Analysts expect the company to announce a net profit of around Rs 130 crore for the full year asagainst the previous fiscal's net of Rs 60.37 crore. On Monday, the scrip closed Rs 175 lower from its opening level of Rs 2925.

Thanks to the work generated on account of the millennium problem, software companies are expected to report excellent results for fiscal 1999. Says Milind Karmarkar, head of research, Dalal & Broacha, ``Software scrips are likely to peak once these companies announce their full-year performance.''

However, he expects the euphoria to die down once these companies announce their first-quarter results for the current fiscal. Thus, Monday's fall of nearly 8 per cent in many software counters can used an entry point by investors for short-term gains.

Scrips like Pentafour Software, HCL Infosystems, Satyam Computers, Silverline exhausted their daily limit of eight per cent on Monday. A software analyst at a Mumbai-based brokerage says, ``Today's correction is healthy as these stocks had gained substantially.''

Satyam Computers, the most traded scrip on BSE, lost Rs 136 onMonday. The company's board is scheduled to meet on April 13 to consider the full-year results as well as a bonus issue of shares. The company has also recently received the Level 5 certificate from SEI CME. For the nine-month period ended December 31, 1998, the company earned a net profit of Rs 53.52 crore and is expected to the end the year with over Rs 70 crore net. On an equity base of Rs 26.2 crore, the Rs 70 crore net translates into an earnings per share of Rs 26.71. This implies the scrip is traded at a PE of 58.55 times.

HCL Infosystems Limited also hit the lower band of the filter and closed at Rs 571.25. The company is likely to report a net profit of more than Rs 60 crore for fiscal 1999. For the six month ended period ended December 1998, the company reported a net profit of Rs 27.41 crore. Although the company's year ends on June 30, analyst still expect the scrip to go into the bull orbit in tune with the other software majors. The company will announce its third-quarter result on April20.

The story is similar to NIIT, whose year-end is September 30. On Monday, the stock lost Rs 80 from its opening level of Rs 1850. For the first-quarter, the company reported a net profit of Rs 8.5 crore. Marketmen expect the stock to cross the Rs 2200-level once the sentiment improves in anticipation of other software majors announcing good full-year results.

Analysts point out that last year, too, the software stocks witnessed major gains on back of excellent full-year performances. Although the market has already discounted an average growth of 50-60 per cent in the net profits of most software companies, announcement of actual figures is sure to fuel a rally in these counters.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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